2906 Oak Ridge Dr Dr · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$369,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2004 0.57 ac lot $212/sqft · 28% below area Est $514k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Energy efficient steel-frame home in desirable Oak Ridge Estates. Situated on over half an acre with mature trees, wood privacy fenced yard with oversized gate and a spacious deck. Inside you will find an open concept with split bedrooms for privacy. Generous sized kitchen with wood grain cabinetry and flexible dining options. The living area showcases vaulted ceilings with exposed beams, creating an inviting open aired space. Golf carts are allowed to travel this community, making the commute to the Lake LBJ neighborhood park and clubhouse a breeze. There is a neighborhood boat ramp for those wanting to enjoy boating on Lake LBJ for fun or great fishing!

Key facts

• Open concept
• Steel-frame home
• Spacious deck

Tags

• STEEL-FRAME HOME
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCED YARD
• SPACIOUS DECK
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• GENEROUS SIZED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,816 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $514,450
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -28.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 Hi Cir N Unit B	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-5%)	14mo	$496,250	$298	68
2806 Oak Ridge Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-10%)	20mo	$435,000	$278	62
1315 Hi Cir N Unit A	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-8%)	16mo	$496,250	$309	61
3112 Oak Ridge Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+15%)	5mo	$499,000	$249	60
3201 Oak Ridge Dr	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,655 (-5%)	20mo	$429,000	$259	48
407 Pecan Creek Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-2%)	23mo	$400,000	$235	45
3211 Oak Ridge Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,920 (+10%)	15mo	$455,000	$237	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-31,758
• Equity at exit: $124,922

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-8,048
• Equity at exit: $165,202

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$421 /mo · $5,053/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,177

Max offer price $264,478

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-383	-5% $-487	+0% $-592	+5% $-696	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-784	-5% $-688	+0% $-592	+5% $-496	+10% $-400
Rate	-1.0pp $-406	-0.5pp $-498	base $-592	+0.5pp $-687	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1655	$3,775	$2.28	6d	1	0.48mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.57mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	25d	1	0.84mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.86mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	45d	1	0.87mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.88mi
202 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1993	$3,000	$1.51	45d	1	0.89mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.91mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.92mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	0.96mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	25d	1	1.05mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	1.08mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	45d	1	1.17mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	45d	1	1.24mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	1.25mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	1.26mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	1.28mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	45d	1	1.28mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	1.28mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	25d	1	1.33mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	1.35mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	1.42mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	25d	2	1.42mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $369,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Energy efficient steel-frame home in desirable Oak Ridge Estates. Situated on over half an acre with mature trees, wood privacy fenced yard with oversized gate and a spacious deck. Inside you will find an open concept with split bedrooms for privacy. Generous sized kitchen with wood grain cabinetry and flexible dining options. The living area showcases vaulted ceilings with exposed beams, creating an inviting open aired space. Golf carts are allowed to travel this community, making the commute to the Lake LBJ neighborhood park and clubhouse a breeze. There is a neighborhood boat ramp for those wanting to enjoy boating on Lake LBJ for fun or great fishing!

18. 2019-06-17
    soldstatus
19. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

20. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

21. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

22. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

23. 2019-02-03
    listed $259,900
24. 2019-02-02
    listed $259,900 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

25. 2019-02-02
    listed $259,900

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

26. 2019-02-02
    listed $259,900

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an energy efficient home with steel frame construction and foam insulation in the popular neighborhood of Oak Ridge Estates! Situated on more than half an acre with mature trees, fenced back yard and a large deck. The house features an open floor plan with split bedrooms.The living room has tall vaulted ceilings with beams. The interior of the home was painted a neutral color in August, 2018. The home is less than a mile from the neighborhood park on Lake LBJ with boat ramp.

27. 2018-09-16
    historical
28. 2018-09-16
    historical
29. 2018-09-16
    historical
30. 2018-09-16
    historical
31. 2018-03-30
    listed $259,000
32. 2018-03-29
    listed $259,000
33. 2018-03-27
    listed $259,000
34. 2018-03-27
    listed $259,000
35. 2004-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,053 · $421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,753 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,700/yr (+$142/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,053
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$13,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $369,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2019-02-03 Listed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2019-02-02 Listed $259,900 LERA
• 2019-02-02 Listed $259,900 LERA
• 2019-02-02 Listed $259,900 Unlock MLS
• 2018-09-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-09-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-03-30 Listed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2018-03-29 Listed $259,000 LERA
• 2018-03-27 Listed $259,000 LERA
• 2018-03-27 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2004-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,053 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.