2873 Wild Horse Rd · Orlando, FL 32822

$183,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Manufactured · 204 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2026 Excellent condition $118/sqft · 22% below area Est $236k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION IN ORLANDO! Welcome to Starlight Ranch a 55+ age-qualified and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a stunning, brand new, beautiful, 2025 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1564.80 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in Orlando, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The kitchen boasts like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, etc. , perfect for both everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Dual vanities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL VANITIES
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ventura Elementary (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 596 students, 66% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 915 students, 66% FRL); Colonial High (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #505 of 667 statewide, top 79%, 3,442 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $137,295 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,500
• List price: $183,900
• Delta: -22.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4562 Conway Landing Dr	1.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,636 (+5%)	0mo	$435,000	$266	52
4409 S Semoran Blvd #3	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (-9%)	1mo	$170,000	$119	52
4403 S Semoran Blvd #5	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (-9%)	2mo	$187,000	$131	51
4557 Southfield Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,406 (-10%)	2mo	$283,500	$202	50
4698 Winding River Rd	1.07mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,663 (+6%)	2mo	$379,999	$229	46
4223 S Semoran Blvd #5	0.67mi	2/1.5	1,214 (-22%)	1mo	$140,000	$115	41
6140 Raintree Dr Unit L3	1.45mi	2/2.0	1,210 (-23%)	1mo	$235,000	$194	39
4126 Gulfstream Bay Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (-14%)	1mo	$345,000	$256	38
4102 Gulfstream Bay Ct	0.79mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (-14%)	1mo	$220,000	$163	36
5348 Tribune Dr	0.88mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,353 (-14%)	1mo	$395,000	$292	36
4321 Spartan Dr	1.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-17%)	0mo	$277,000	$214	35
3419 Santa Monica Dr	1.22mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,938 (+24%)	0mo	$282,000	$146	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-45,666
• Equity at exit: $27,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-70,506
• Equity at exit: $15,900

Cash invested: $51,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 102.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $169,900 ($116/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 76% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32822

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$964
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,758/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,609

Max offer price $156,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-123	+0% $-186	+5% $-250	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-240	+0% $-186	+5% $-132	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-139	base $-186	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,975
• Closing costs: $5,517
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2873 Wild Horse Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,699	$1.09	0d	1	0.02mi
2862 Stallion Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,749	$1.46	83d	1	0.15mi
2914 Stallion Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,799	$1.33	88d	1	0.15mi
2879 Canyon Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,999	$1.37	64d	1	0.18mi
5119 Jalisco Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,300	$1.53	78d	1	0.31mi
4244 Ranch House Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,400	$1.53	10d	1	0.32mi
5744 Vista Linda Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	2052	$2,475	$1.21	84d	1	0.34mi
5927 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$2,095	$1.60	40d	1	0.36mi
5927 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,980	$1.51	117d	1	0.36mi
5975 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1274	$1,695	$1.33	0d	12	0.38mi
4642 Commander Dr #938 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	30d	1	0.39mi
4630 Commander Dr #1021 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,450	$1.38	6d	1	0.40mi
4630 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,550	$1.73	29d	2	0.40mi
4630 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,450	$1.62	0d	2	0.40mi
5737 Gatlin Ave #428 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,500	$1.42	30d	1	0.40mi
5974 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,695	$1.60	59d	1	0.41mi
5974 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,735	$1.64	117d	1	0.41mi
2760 Ranch House Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,899	$1.40	110d	1	0.42mi
4512 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	40d	2	0.44mi
4512 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,525	$1.50	10d	2	0.44mi
4512 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	42d	2	0.44mi
4512 Commander Dr #1718 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1101	$1,650	$1.50	30d	1	0.44mi
5800 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	59d	1	0.44mi
5713 Gatlin Ave Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,450	$1.62	30d	2	0.44mi
5713 Gatlin Ave #211 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,450	$1.38	27d	1	0.45mi
5848 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	119d	1	0.46mi
5848 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,895	$1.45	59d	1	0.46mi
5824 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1323	$1,895	$1.43	59d	2	0.47mi
5824 Lake Pointe Village Cir #504 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,900	$1.54	23d	1	0.47mi
4518 Commander Dr #1921 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	0.48mi
5907 Turnbull Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,800	$1.62	85d	1	0.49mi
4528 Commander Dr #2011 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,800	$1.44	56d	1	0.49mi
4572 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,700	$1.90	9d	3	0.49mi
4572 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,700	$1.90	7d	2	0.49mi
4528 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,645	$1.50	88d	2	0.49mi
5424 Serene Ln Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,800	$1.67	10d	1	0.50mi
4536 Commander Dr #1517 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,595	$1.51	110d	1	0.50mi
6960 Gibraltar Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,500	$1.08	119d	1	0.51mi
4532 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,500	$1.42	30d	2	0.52mi
4532 Commander Dr #2128 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	10d	1	0.52mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $189,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction, Callaway plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,564

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $183,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $183,900 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $183,900 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $183,900 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $183,900 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $183,900 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $183,900 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $183,900 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $183,900 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $183,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $183,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $183,900 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $183,900 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $183,900 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $183,900 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $183,900 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $183,900 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $183,900 Active 178 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $183,900 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $183,900 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $183,900 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $183,900 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $183,900 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $183,900 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    pricedays on market $183,900 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $184,900 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $184,900 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $184,900 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $184,900 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $184,900 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $184,900 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $184,900 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $184,900 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $184,900 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $184,900 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $184,900 Active 156 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 155 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 154 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 153 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 150 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 148 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $184,900 Active 147 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $184,900 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $184,900 Active 142 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    price $184,900 Active 141 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $189,900 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,301
• − Property taxes: −$2,758
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$5,350
• Taxable loss: −$5,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has a high resale and rental value due to its modern design and location in a 55+ age-qualified community.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ventura Elementary F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Liberty Middle F FL #399/571 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Colonial High F FL #505/667 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 86/100

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,618,226 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 67,081
• Household income: $56,540
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 23% of renters

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 36% White 17% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 60% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.17%
• Current HPI: 355.5775
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $189,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction, Callaway plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,564