2873 Wild Horse Rd · Orlando, FL 32822

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Manufactured · 107 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION IN ORLANDO! Welcome to Starlight Ranch a 55+ age-qualified and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a stunning, brand new, beautiful, 2025 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1564.80 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in Orlando, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The kitchen boasts like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, etc. , perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retre

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Dual vanities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL VANITIES
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $189,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction, Callaway plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,564

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,955
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,405
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32822

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5119 Jalisco Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	12d	1	0.31mi
5927 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,980	$1.51	22d	1	0.36mi
5975 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1236	$1,735	$1.40	4d	12	0.38mi
5926 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$2,125	$1.63	15d	1	0.39mi
4630 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,750	$1.96	11d	3	0.40mi
5974 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,735	$1.64	22d	1	0.41mi
2760 Ranch House Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,899	$1.40	15d	1	0.42mi
5848 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	0.46mi
5824 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	0.47mi
4528 Commander Dr #2011 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,895	$1.51	18d	1	0.49mi
4536 Commander Dr #1517 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,595	$1.51	14d	1	0.50mi
6960 Gibraltar Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,500	$1.08	24d	1	0.51mi
4532 Commander Dr #2131 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,450	$1.38	3d	1	0.52mi
4403 S Semoran Blvd #6 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,095	$1.47	8d	1	0.60mi
4407 S Semoran Blvd #2 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,860	$1.30	24d	1	0.61mi
4401 S Semoran Blvd #1 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,150	$1.30	12d	1	0.62mi
4269 S Semoran Blvd #2 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	0.65mi
4267 S Semoran Blvd #14 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,550	$1.28	24d	1	0.69mi
4117 S Semoran Blvd #22 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,499	$1.24	8d	1	0.73mi
5575 Rosebriar Way Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,466	$1.50	2d	6	0.78mi
3950 Southpointe Dr #418 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,985	$1.62	16d	1	0.84mi
5545 Devonbriar Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,450	$1.26	24d	1	0.92mi
3049 Jon Jon Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,995	$1.90	24d	1	0.94mi
6791 Tussilago Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	24d	1	0.97mi
4117 Berkshire Bay Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$2,026	$1.88	8d	1	1.05mi
6898 Tussilago Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,250	$1.37	24d	1	1.06mi
3528 Idle Hour Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	18d	1	1.07mi
5789 Bent Pine Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,794	$2.24	2d	49	1.21mi
7528 Marbella Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1141	$1,559	$1.37	2d	22	1.26mi
5901 Bent Pine Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,884	$1.88	2d	24	1.26mi
3312 S Semoran Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,809	$2.21	3d	15	1.30mi
6201 Bent Pine Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,743	$1.81	22d	24	1.32mi
5900 Bent Pine Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	908	$1,605	$1.77	3d	21	1.32mi
3211 S Semoran Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,699	$1.93	2d	12	1.39mi
3298 S Semoran Blvd #24 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	24d	1	1.40mi
6206 Raintree Dr Unit GE Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$1,850	$1.35	22d	1	1.44mi
2813 Whippet Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,349	$1.72	3d	1	1.47mi
2924 Cottage Grove Ct Unit GE Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $2,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 67,081
• Household income: $56,540
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4246.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 36% White 17% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 60% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.17%
• Current HPI: 355.5775
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B