3215 Phelps Ln · Baltimore, MD 21229

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1929 $119/sqft · 11% below area Est $145k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* INVESTOR ALERT * Recently renovated and tenant occupied 1500+ SQFT 3 Bed / 1 Bath. Monthly rent of $1,650 with HABC. Recent updates include flooring, windows, HVAC, roof, bathroom, etc.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Hvac
• Roof

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• RECENT UPDATES
• FLOORING
• WINDOWS
• HVAC
• ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $130k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.05%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,463
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -10.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 N Hilton St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	1mo	$89,775	$80	87
119 Hilton St	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-5%)	0mo	$211,000	$203	80
107 N Monastery Ave	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (-1%)	2mo	$65,000	$60	77
133 N Monastery Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-1%)	3mo	$142,000	$131	74
209 Mount Holly St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	2mo	$228,000	$211	70
3039 Harlem Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-2%)	1mo	$27,500	$26	68
907 N Rosedale St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-0%)	4mo	$90,000	$83	62
3302 W Franklin St	0.41mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$50,000	$52	59
3306 W Franklin St	0.41mi	3/2.0	960 (-12%)	1mo	$51,500	$54	55
537 Longwood St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+8%)	0mo	$60,000	$51	53
2576 W Baltimore St W	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$127	47
2544 W Fairmount Ave	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,206
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $75,195
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,675/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	23d	1	0.12mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	23d	1	0.13mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	23d	1	0.16mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	4d	1	0.39mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	4d	1	0.42mi
3423 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,710	$1.22	43d	1	0.51mi
3130 Stafford St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.52mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.54mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	43d	1	0.58mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	4d	1	0.59mi
709 Denison St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,630	$1.94	23d	1	0.61mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.64mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	43d	1	0.66mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.67mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.68mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	23d	1	0.69mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	43d	1	0.72mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.72mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	0.74mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.75mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.75mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.75mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	23d	1	0.76mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	23d	1	0.76mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	23d	1	0.77mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	43d	1	0.80mi
110 S Catherine St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	43d	1	0.80mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.81mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.82mi
2 S Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	856	$1,160	$1.36	14d	1	0.86mi
2 N Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,335	$1.81	3d	5	0.86mi
2738 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1183	$1,500	$1.27	43d	1	0.87mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	43d	1	0.89mi
2737 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,650	$1.34	4d	1	0.90mi
2671 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,325	$1.16	43d	1	0.90mi
3392 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	23d	1	0.92mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	17d	1	0.93mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.93mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	23d	1	0.96mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-02-27
   price $130,000 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   * INVESTOR ALERT * Recently renovated and tenant occupied 1500+ SQFT 3 Bed / 1 Bath. Monthly rent of $1,650 with HABC. Recent updates include flooring, windows, HVAC, roof, bathroom, etc.

9. 2025-11-25
   listed $140,000 Active 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   * INVESTOR ALERT * Recently renovated and tenant occupied 1500+ SQFT 3 Bed / 1 Bath. Monthly rent of $1,650 with HABC. Recent updates include flooring, windows, HVAC, roof, bathroom, etc.

10. 2023-12-06
    historical $1,300
11. 2023-09-15
    listed $1,300
12. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This property is tenant occupied, do not go to the property without an appointment or agent. 5-14-2021- OPEN HOUSE CANCELLED This is a great pick up for an investor. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom well kept rental property. Carpet throughout, large bedrooms, and spacious kitchen. The tenant is a long term tenant and wants to stay. You won't want to miss this one. It has great features and well maintained as well as instant cash flow.

13. 2021-05-14
    historical Active Under Contract 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This property is tenant occupied, do not go to the property without an appointment or agent. 5-14-2021- OPEN HOUSE CANCELLED This is a great pick up for an investor. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom well kept rental property. Carpet throughout, large bedrooms, and spacious kitchen. The tenant is a long term tenant and wants to stay. You won't want to miss this one. It has great features and well maintained as well as instant cash flow.

14. 2021-05-11
    price $84,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This property is tenant occupied, do not go to the property without an appointment or agent. 5-14-2021- OPEN HOUSE CANCELLED This is a great pick up for an investor. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom well kept rental property. Carpet throughout, large bedrooms, and spacious kitchen. The tenant is a long term tenant and wants to stay. You won't want to miss this one. It has great features and well maintained as well as instant cash flow.

15. 2021-04-12
    listed $89,900 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This property is tenant occupied, do not go to the property without an appointment or agent. 5-14-2021- OPEN HOUSE CANCELLED This is a great pick up for an investor. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom well kept rental property. Carpet throughout, large bedrooms, and spacious kitchen. The tenant is a long term tenant and wants to stay. You won't want to miss this one. It has great features and well maintained as well as instant cash flow.

16. 2018-05-05
    historical
17. 2018-05-05
    historical Withdrawn
18. 2018-04-25
    listed $59,995 Active
19. 2018-04-25
    listed Active
20. 2018-01-01
    historical Expired
21. 2017-04-04
    listed Active
22. 2017-04-04
    listed $64,995 Active
23. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus $38,000
24. 2003-05-10
    soldstatus $38,000
25. 2003-03-10
    historical
26. 2003-03-06
    listed $42,500
27. 2002-06-17
    historical
28. 2001-06-27
    listed
29. 1983-09-29
    soldstatus $17,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,675
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $5,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2776.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+626.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-06 Rental Removed $1,300 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $1,300 APPFOLIO
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-11 Price Changed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-12 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-04-25 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-04-25 Listed $59,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-04-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-04-04 Listed $64,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-10 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MRIS
• 2003-03-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-03-06 Listed $42,500 MRIS
• 2002-06-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-06-27 Listed — MRIS
• 1983-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $17,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,675 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.