15773 Equine Gait Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$244,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot Est $264k · 7% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect harmony of rural tranquility and modern living at 15773 Equine Gait Dr, Jacksonville, FL 32234. This enchanting property is a haven for those who appreciate the beauty of both nature and fine craftsmanship.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Beach volleyball
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• PANTRY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• BEACH VOLLEYBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool (association; not private)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $150; Association amenities include clubhouse, maintained grounds, and playground; CDD fee applies (amount $2,541)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Fencing (other); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Split bedrooms; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,672 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,655
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6433 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	6mo	$255,000	$163	68
6093 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-13%)	10mo	$230,000	$189	66
15748 Equine Gait Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-13%)	20mo	$259,000	$212	60
15644 Saddled Charger Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	22mo	$275,000	$176	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,337
• Equity at exit: $76,549

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-610
• Equity at exit: $96,573

Cash invested: $68,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax from tax record: −$564 /mo · $6,767/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $195,672

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-207	+0% $-276	+5% $-346	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-361	+0% $-276	+5% $-192	+10% $-108
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-214	base $-276	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,125
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	2d	1	0.05mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	8d	1	0.12mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$1,773	$0.95	2d	27	0.30mi
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	13d	1	0.91mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	4d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $244,500 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,750 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,750 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,750 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,750 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,750 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $251,750 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,750 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $251,750 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $265,000 Active
16. 2025-01-13
    historical $1,599
17. 2025-01-10
    historical $1,599
18. 2025-01-09
    listed $1,599
19. 2024-12-27
    price $1,599
20. 2024-12-20
    price $1,625
21. 2024-12-13
    price $1,675
22. 2024-12-06
    price $1,699
23. 2024-11-27
    price $1,745
24. 2024-11-23
    listed $1,779
25. 2024-01-25
    historical 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Discover the perfect harmony of rural tranquility and modern living at 15773 Equine Gait Dr, Jacksonville, FL 32234. This enchanting property is a haven for those who appreciate the beauty of both nature and fine craftsmanship.

26. 2023-12-14
    listed $295,000 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Discover the perfect harmony of rural tranquility and modern living at 15773 Equine Gait Dr, Jacksonville, FL 32234. This enchanting property is a haven for those who appreciate the beauty of both nature and fine craftsmanship.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,767 · $564/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,767 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,696
• − Property taxes: −$6,767
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$7,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for its new owners and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Updates interior and improves comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Updates interior and improves comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $265,000 realMLS
• 2025-01-13 Rental Removed $1,599 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-10 Rental Removed $1,599 RENT.
• 2025-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,599 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $1,599 RENT.
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $1,625 RENT.
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $1,675 RENT.
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $1,699 RENT.
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $1,745 RENT.
• 2024-11-23 Listed for Rent $1,779 RENT.
• 2024-01-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-12-14 Listed $295,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+35.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,767 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.