17800 Cramer Dr · Agua Dulce, TX 79928

$119,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 2010 Fair condition 0.29 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

huge Lot Located in Horizon, just outside of the city, this property offers a spacious fully fenced lot paired with a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The size of the lot gives you endless options to expand. Message me for more details or to schedule a visit!

Key facts

• Huge lot
• Fully fenced lot
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• FULLY FENCED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2093 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $828 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,380 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.28%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $13,033
• Equity at exit: $17,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $52,854
• Equity at exit: $10,354

Cash invested: $33,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2093
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$628
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,796/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $119,750

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $552	+0% $511	+5% $469	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $377	-5% $444	+0% $511	+5% $578	+10% $645
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $541	base $511	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,938
• Closing costs: $3,592
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,750 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,750 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,750 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,750 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,750 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,750 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,750 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,750 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,750 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,750 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,750 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,750 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,750 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-02-05
    price $119,750 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    huge Lot Located in Horizon, just outside of the city, this property offers a spacious fully fenced lot paired with a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The size of the lot gives you endless options to expand. Message me for more details or to schedule a visit!

15. 2026-01-07
    price $129,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    huge Lot Located in Horizon, just outside of the city, this property offers a spacious fully fenced lot paired with a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The size of the lot gives you endless options to expand. Message me for more details or to schedule a visit!

16. 2026-01-01
    listed $139,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    huge Lot Located in Horizon, just outside of the city, this property offers a spacious fully fenced lot paired with a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The size of the lot gives you endless options to expand. Message me for more details or to schedule a visit!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,708
• − Property taxes: −$1,796
• − Insurance: −$599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$3,484
• Taxable income: $4,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $5,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding and interior paint touch-ups. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear on the exterior of the mobile home.
• Minor interior paint — Faded paint in some areas, which can be touched up with a fresh coat.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both Painting and touch-ups throughout the interior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear on the exterior of the mobile home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Faded paint in some areas, which can be touched up with a fresh coat.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Painting and touch-ups throughout the interior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Agua Dulce

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1202
• US rank: #21027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $119,750 GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $129,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $139,000 GEPARMLS