4815 Sayers St · Houston, TX 77026

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,261 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1959 5,000 sqft lot $95/sqft · 38% below area Est $194k · 38% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special priced to sell! This property is full of potential and perfect for a creative investor looking for their next project. With a little TLC, this home could be transformed into a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. Opportunity is there for the buyer who can see the vision and bring it to life. Don’t miss your chance to add value and make this property shine.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-696/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,619/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,758 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,128
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -38.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3418 Memel St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,096 (-13%)	0mo	$199,159	$182	67
4921 Kashmere St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (+6%)	0mo	$109,500	$82	65
4114 Sayers St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	18mo	$120,000	$96	60
4506 Russell St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-6%)	19mo	$205,000	$173	60
3409 Lebadie St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+10%)	17mo	$250,000	$180	57
4603 Wayne St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (-3%)	19mo	$159,000	$131	56
4412 Sayers St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-14%)	8mo	$209,999	$195	53
4010 Wayne St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (-5%)	4mo	$150,000	$126	51
3918 Falls St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+6%)	11mo	$229,999	$173	50
4625 Los Angeles St	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,084 (-14%)	10mo	$120,000	$111	49
3714 Christie St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,086 (-14%)	4mo	$150,000	$138	46
3443 Sayers St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,147 (-9%)	14mo	$129,900	$113	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $16,995
• Equity at exit: $60,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $59,481
• Equity at exit: $97,690

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,771/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $109,758

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	0.03mi
4030 Reid St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	44d	1	0.76mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.87mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	44d	1	0.94mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.95mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.03mi
5435 Pardee St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1634	$1,000	$0.61	44d	1	1.04mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	1.12mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	5d	1	1.12mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	15d	1	1.13mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.24mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	14d	1	1.25mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	1.25mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.35mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	44d	1	1.44mi
3802 Dabney St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$875	$0.96	3d	1	1.48mi
3802 Dabney St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$990	$1.20	44d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    price $120,000 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Investor special priced to sell! This property is full of potential and perfect for a creative investor looking for their next project. With a little TLC, this home could be transformed into a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. Opportunity is there for the buyer who can see the vision and bring it to life. Don’t miss your chance to add value and make this property shine.

13. 2026-04-06
    listed $150,000 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Investor special priced to sell! This property is full of potential and perfect for a creative investor looking for their next project. With a little TLC, this home could be transformed into a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. Opportunity is there for the buyer who can see the vision and bring it to life. Don’t miss your chance to add value and make this property shine.

14. 2014-08-04
    soldstatus
15. 1999-02-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,771
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$573
• After-tax cash flow: $-123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,771 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.