78 Van Bergh Ave · Rochester, NY 14610

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1920 4,600 sqft lot Est $291k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to North Winton Village — one of Rochester’s most loved neighborhoods! This charming home blends timeless details with thoughtful updates. The beautifully designed kitchen with all appliances only 1year old offers modern functionality while still fitting the home’s original charm. The classic dining room provides a great space for friends and family to gather for those holiday dinners or casual meals. The 2nd floor offers 3 spacious bedrooms with a beautifully updated full bath. The 3rd floor space provides incredible flexibility with plenty of room for a primary suite, guest retreat, home office, or creative space. Step outside and you’ll fall in love with t

Key facts

• Classic dining room
• Updated full bath
• 3rd floor space

Tags

• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• CLASSIC DINING ROOM
• UPDATED FULL BATH
• 3RD FLOOR SPACE
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity, storage, workshop and garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing construction; City street frontage; Residential, rectangular lot near public transit
• Construction: Shake siding; PEX plumbing; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Open patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level); Bedroom 2 (Second level); Bedroom 3 (Second level); Bedroom 4 (Third level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating, forced air; Central air; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: School 28-Henry Hudson (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,992 of 2,108 statewide, top 95%, 616 students, 93% FRL); East Lower School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #715 of 729 statewide, top 98%, 304 students, 86% FRL); Edison Career And Technology High School (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,233 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,126 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1050 Atlantic Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,445 (-1%)	1mo	$270,000	$187	77
120 Brookfield Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+7%)	3mo	$340,000	$217	75
115 Allandale Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-15%)	1mo	$248,000	$199	70
106 Ohio St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+9%)	2mo	$218,000	$136	67
1160 Park Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,481 (+1%)	1mo	$285,000	$192	65
970 Atlantic Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,249 (-15%)	2mo	$210,000	$168	64
139 Carling Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,283 (-12%)	2mo	$275,000	$214	57
110 Arch St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-3%)	2mo	$200,000	$141	54
48 Arbordale Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+6%)	0mo	$285,000	$184	53
25 Wilsonia Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,604 (+10%)	1mo	$338,000	$211	50
116 Newcroft Park	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,652 (+13%)	1mo	$510,000	$309	47
67 Merwin Ave	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,592 (+9%)	3mo	$354,000	$222	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,468
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,233
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14610

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,413/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $199	+0% $135	+5% $71	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $59	+0% $135	+5% $211	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $192	base $135	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
— Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,450	$1.41	45d	1	0.35mi
108 Bowman St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.43mi
1600 East Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$2,875	$3.04	4d	1	0.49mi
1079 Garson Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1273	$2,100	$1.65	12d	1	0.59mi
322 Wisconsin St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	0.60mi
241 Norris Dr Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	4d	1	0.76mi
459-461 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1053	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	0.78mi
1159 Culver Rd Unit A2 UP Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.80mi
27 Hoyt Pl Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1354	$2,995	$2.21	4d	1	0.82mi
176 Merwin Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	0.87mi
933 University Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1295	$3,815	$2.94	4d	12	0.87mi
214 Culver Rd Apt 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	16d	1	0.91mi
420 Rosewood Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1246	$1,300	$1.04	5d	1	0.94mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	5d	1	0.97mi
36 Morningside Park Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1446	$2,400	$1.66	5d	1	0.97mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	1.06mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	45d	1	1.06mi
15 Vick Park B Unit A Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1616	$2,350	$1.45	25d	1	1.12mi
733 University Ave #3 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	45d	1	1.12mi
182 Laurelton Rd Unit 182 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,600	$1.60	12d	1	1.21mi
21 Rundel Park Unit 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,099	$1.68	21d	1	1.22mi
294 Barrington St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1131	$1,750	$1.55	45d	1	1.30mi
260 Oxford St Unit UP Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1850	$2,600	$1.41	45d	1	1.30mi
94 Avondale Park Apt 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	1.35mi
222 Ellison St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	971	$1,000	$1.03	15d	1	1.38mi
86-88 Baycliff Dr Unit 86 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,030	$1.14	23d	1	1.43mi
1132 Monroe Ave Unit Upper Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	5d	1	1.46mi
948 Monroe Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	12d	1	1.49mi
948 Monroe Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	4d	1	1.49mi
1107-1109 Monroe Ave Unit 1107 Monroe Ave, Upper Unit Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1346	$1,650	$1.23	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $224,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-27
   listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,413 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,194/yr (+$100/mo · 84.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,413
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$531
• After-tax cash flow: $2,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,311
• Household income: $85,961
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.64%
• Current HPI: 280.8593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $224,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,413 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.