22970 Needels Loop · Anchorage, AK 99567

$399,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1974 0.84 ac lot $163/sqft · 17% below area Est $483k · 17% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a kind property in need of some love! Outside the home you will find a detached garage, barn and shed on a spacious lot. Attached garage is two car but one garage space is used for laundry and a storage tank. Inside is 3 bedrooms, office and flex space. The seller is actively working on clearing the home of belongings and needs 24 hour notice for showings.

Key facts

• Office
• Shed
• Barn

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• BARN
• SHED
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OFFICE
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $387,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,505
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22824 Daniel Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,255 (-8%)	0mo	$399,000	$177	74
22179 Birchwood Loop Rd	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,304 (-6%)	2mo	$435,000	$189	65
19312 Starflower Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,392 (-2%)	11mo	$425,000	$178	62
19333 Wildwood Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,705 (+11%)	7mo	$485,000	$179	49
19400 Wildwood Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,809 (+15%)	7mo	$690,000	$246	47
23434 Creek Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,286 (-6%)	21mo	$495,000	$217	46
20109 Upper Bowery Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,288 (-6%)	11mo	$545,000	$238	41
21919 Tarika Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,704 (+11%)	21mo	$155,000	$57	35
20516 White Birch Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,304 (-6%)	23mo	$650,000	$282	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-27,988
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $22,996
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99567

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,814/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,472

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19452 Sullins Dr Chugiak, AK	4.0	2.5	2617	$4,200	$1.60	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 398-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on market $399,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   price $415,000 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   One of a kind property in need of some love! Outside the home you will find a detached garage, barn and shed on a spacious lot. Attached garage is two car but one garage space is used for laundry and a storage tank. Inside is 3 bedrooms, office and flex space. The seller is actively working on clearing the home of belongings and needs 24 hour notice for showings.

7. 2026-03-31
   listed $425,000 Active 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   One of a kind property in need of some love! Outside the home you will find a detached garage, barn and shed on a spacious lot. Attached garage is two car but one garage space is used for laundry and a storage tank. Inside is 3 bedrooms, office and flex space. The seller is actively working on clearing the home of belongings and needs 24 hour notice for showings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,814 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,814 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,814
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,032
• − Management: −$4,032
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $6,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• City population: 218,117
• Population (ZIP): 6,739

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.74%
• Current HPI: 279.3784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $415,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $425,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,814 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.