0 Hickory Dr · South Shenango, PA 16424

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.25 ac lot $44/sqft · 42% below area Est $72k · 42% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable getaway just a few hundred feet from Pymatuning Lake! Recently cleared lot with mobile home moved onto the property. Features new well, new electrical service, and public sewer. Water and sewer are connected. Brand-new metal roof installed. New deck and vinyl railing recently added. Some interior updates including flooring. Seller may consider rent-to-own options.

Key facts

• New well
• Public sewer
• Cleared lot

Tags

• CLEARED LOT
• NEW WELL
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• PUBLIC SEWER
• WATER AND SEWER CONNECTED
• BRAND-NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $811 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jamestown Area SD (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #336 of 658 in PA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.71%
• DSCR: 4.68
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,377
• List price: $42,000
• Delta: -41.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $70,261
• Equity at exit: $33,303

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 15.08×
• Total profit: $165,632
• Equity at exit: $67,483

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16424

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $42,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Affordable getaway just a few hundred feet from Pymatuning Lake! Recently cleared lot with mobile home moved onto the property. Features new well, new electrical service, and public sewer. Water and sewer are connected. Brand-new metal roof installed. New deck and vinyl railing recently added. Some interior updates including flooring. Seller may consider rent-to-own options.

16. 2026-04-19
    price $48,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Affordable getaway just a few hundred feet from Pymatuning Lake! Recently cleared lot with mobile home moved onto the property. Features new well, new electrical service, and public sewer. Water and sewer are connected. Brand-new metal roof installed. New deck and vinyl railing recently added. Some interior updates including flooring. Seller may consider rent-to-own options.

17. 2026-03-26
    price $55,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Affordable getaway just a few hundred feet from Pymatuning Lake! Recently cleared lot with mobile home moved onto the property. Features new well, new electrical service, and public sewer. Water and sewer are connected. Brand-new metal roof installed. New deck and vinyl railing recently added. Some interior updates including flooring. Seller may consider rent-to-own options.

18. 2026-02-12
    listed $63,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Affordable getaway just a few hundred feet from Pymatuning Lake! Recently cleared lot with mobile home moved onto the property. Features new well, new electrical service, and public sewer. Water and sewer are connected. Brand-new metal roof installed. New deck and vinyl railing recently added. Some interior updates including flooring. Seller may consider rent-to-own options.

19. 2025-10-01
    price $49,900
20. 2025-06-24
    price $55,900
21. 2025-05-01
    listed $64,900 Active
22. 2018-01-26
    historical
23. 2017-01-27
    listed $5,600
24. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus $34,000
25. 2008-10-06
    listed $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $9,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,312
• After-tax cash flow: $7,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate rehab needed. It has a new roof and deck, but requires cleaning and updates to the interior and exterior to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Cabinets appear slightly worn
• Minor bathroom cabinets — Cabinets appear slightly worn
• Minor interior walls — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and resale value
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint can improve interior appearance and resale value
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Cabinets appear slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom cabinets · Cabinets appear slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint can improve interior appearance and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jamestown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212300
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,439
• Composite: 47.61/100
• National rank: #4948
• State rank: #336 of 658 in PA

Livability — South Shenango

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pymatuning Central, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.48%
• Current HPI: 276.8388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $42,000 GEBOR
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $48,000 GEBOR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $55,000 GEBOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $63,000 GEBOR
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $49,900 GEBOR
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $55,900 GEBOR
• 2025-05-01 Listed $64,900 GEBOR
• 2018-01-26 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2017-01-27 Listed $5,600 West Penn MLS
• 2009-09-04 Sold (MLS) $34,000 West Penn MLS
• 2008-10-06 Listed $42,900 West Penn MLS