409 Ross St · Erie, PA 16507

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1892 4,787 sqft lot $67/sqft · 77% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fully occupied duplex. Many recent updates to both units including plumbing, hot water tanks, flooring, etc. Plenty of off-street parking and fenced in back yard. Turnkey investment property.

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• Off-street parking
• 4,787 sq ft lot

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $409/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,912/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.45%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,927
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 77.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Sobieski St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,496 (+1%)	4mo	$70,000	$47	62
820 Wayne St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,584 (+7%)	13mo	$42,500	$27	59
941 E 11th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (+2%)	9mo	$58,000	$38	58
1005 Hess Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,408 (-5%)	10mo	$46,000	$33	55
1015 E 5th St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,696 (+14%)	22mo	$45,000	$27	52
1101 Pennsylvania Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,544 (+4%)	20mo	$48,000	$31	50
302 Wallace St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,672 (+13%)	7mo	$79,900	$48	45
1404 E Lake Rd	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+10%)	14mo	$75,000	$46	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $64,960
• Equity at exit: $51,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $144,446
• Equity at exit: $84,501

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 52%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$1,912
Total (2 units)			$1,912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.42mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	1.13mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $105,000 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Fully occupied duplex. Many recent updates to both units including plumbing, hot water tanks, flooring, etc. Plenty of off-street parking and fenced in back yard. Turnkey investment property.

19. 2025-03-17
    listed $120,000 Active
20. 2024-12-18
    price $117,000
21. 2024-10-07
    price $120,000
22. 2024-07-25
    listed $130,000 Active
23. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $125,000
24. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed
25. 2023-05-15
    status Pending
26. 2023-05-01
    listed $135,000 Active
27. 2019-08-16
    soldstatus $20,000
28. 2019-08-14
    soldstatus $20,000
29. 2019-07-01
    listed $30,000
30. 2019-07-01
    listed $30,000
31. 2019-06-30
    historical
32. 2018-08-27
    listed $55,000
33. 2018-06-30
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $7,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $105,000 GEBOR
• 2025-03-17 Listed $120,000 GEBOR
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $117,000 GEBOR
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $120,000 GEBOR
• 2024-07-25 Listed $130,000 GEBOR
• 2023-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GEBOR
• 2023-05-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-05-01 Listed $135,000 GEBOR
• 2019-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GEBOR
• 2019-07-01 Listed $30,000 GEBOR
• 2019-07-01 Listed $30,000 GEBOR
• 2019-06-30 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2018-08-27 Listed $55,000 West Penn MLS
• 2018-06-30 Listed $40,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,573 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.