237 NE Gum Swamp Rd · Lake City, FL 32055

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 2008 0.28 ac lot Est $195k · 25% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has been completely updated a must see - In move condition Comcast services available home has security system

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fenced yard
• Carport

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (RES)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces southeast
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.28-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,204 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,264
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 NW Jeb Ter	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,333 (-2%)	1mo	$40,000	$30	73
189 NW Meeks St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,153 (-15%)	0mo	$26,000	$23	53
257 NE Sunnybrook St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (-0%)	12mo	$115,000	$85	51
181 NE Windall Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	3mo	$249,000	$166	51
2206 N US Hwy 441	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-10%)	10mo	$174,900	$144	42
175 NE Fronie St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,163 (-14%)	21mo	$172,500	$148	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $107,762
• Equity at exit: $220,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $337,427
• Equity at exit: $475,787

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $173,905

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-263	-5% $-333	+0% $-402	+5% $-471	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-463	+0% $-402	+5% $-341	+10% $-280
Rate	-1.0pp $-279	-0.5pp $-340	base $-402	+0.5pp $-465	+1.0pp $-530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,900 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $244,900 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,900 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 207 DOM
17. 2025-11-12
    price $244,900
18. 2025-10-30
    listed $249,900 Active
19. 2024-07-18
    historical
20. 2024-07-06
    price $210,000
21. 2024-07-04
    price $215,000
22. 2024-06-29
    price $220,000
23. 2024-06-21
    listed $229,000 Active
24. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $198,000
25. 2022-10-13
    listed Active Under Contract 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Home has been completely updated a must see - In move condition Comcast services available home has security system

26. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus $198,000 Closed 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Home has been completely updated a must see - In move condition Comcast services available home has security system

27. 2022-06-30
    listed $228,000 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Home has been completely updated a must see - In move condition Comcast services available home has security system

28. 2020-07-07
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$9,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+226.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-18 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-06 Price Changed $210,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $220,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $229,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Listed — NFMLS
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) $198,000 NFMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $228,000 NFMLS
• 2020-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,805 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.