3445 Nightingale Ln · Midlothian, TX 76065

$499,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · Land · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot $238/sqft · 33% above area Est $375k · 33% over $83/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contact Community Manager for incentives! The Jasmine floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 3-car garage loaded with luxury upgrades throughout. From the moment you arrive, the home's curb appeal stands out with cedar garage doors, an inviting covered front porch, and an 8' front door that sets the tone for the elevated finishes inside. Step into an open and bright layout enhanced by upgraded laminate floors throughout the home, complemented by upgraded tile selections and a tile fireplace that extends floor-to-ceiling in the family room. The heart of the home is the deluxe kitchen, offering white upgraded countertops, a double oven, upgraded backsplash, upgraded kitchen faucet, and a functional layout perfect for cooking and entertaining. A dedicated freezer plug adds convenience, while the Christmas light package brings seasonal ease. The utility room is thoughtfully designed with upper cabinets and a mud bench, providing extra storage and organization. The home also includes blinds, gutters, and a covered patio that extends your living space outdoors. An additional 17x10 uncovered concrete area offers even more room for grilling, lounging, or future outdoor enhancements. With its 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, this Jasmine floor plan delivers comfort and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The 3-car garage provides ample parking and storage, making this home as functional as it is beautiful. Visit the Bloomfield Homes model in Mockingbird Heights. ..

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile fireplace
• Cedar garage doors

Tags

• CEDAR GARAGE DOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• 8 FOOT FRONT DOOR
• UPGRADED LAMINATE FLOORS
• UPGRADED TILE SELECTIONS
• TILE FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $336,814 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,566
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: 33.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-99,045
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-96,993
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,815

Max offer price $436,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-212	+0% $-353	+5% $-495	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-486	+0% $-353	+5% $-220	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-226	base $-353	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	45d	1	0.80mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	25d	1	0.80mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $499,000 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    Contact Community Manager for incentives! The Jasmine floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 3-car garage loaded with luxury upgrades throughout. From the moment you arrive, the home's curb appeal stands out with cedar garage doors, an inviting covered front porch, and an 8' front door that sets the tone for the elevated finishes inside. Step into an open and bright layout enhanced by upgraded laminate floors throughout the home, complemented by upgraded tile selections and a tile fireplace that extends floor-to-ceiling in the family room. The heart of the home is the deluxe kitchen, offering white upgraded countertops, a double oven, upgraded backsplash, upgraded kitchen faucet, and a functional layout perfect for cooking and entertaining. A dedicated freezer plug adds convenience, while the Christmas light package brings seasonal ease. The utility room is thoughtfully designed with upper cabinets and a mud bench, providing extra storage and organization. The home also includes blinds, gutters, and a covered patio that extends your living space outdoors. An additional 17x10 uncovered concrete area offers even more room for grilling, lounging, or future outdoor enhancements. With its 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, this Jasmine floor plan delivers comfort and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The 3-car garage provides ample parking and storage, making this home as functional as it is beautiful. Visit the Bloomfield Homes model in Mockingbird Heights. ..

16. 2026-04-23
    price $499,000 1592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    Contact Community Manager for incentives! The Jasmine floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 3-car garage loaded with luxury upgrades throughout. From the moment you arrive, the home's curb appeal stands out with cedar garage doors, an inviting covered front porch, and an 8' front door that sets the tone for the elevated finishes inside. Step into an open and bright layout enhanced by upgraded laminate floors throughout the home, complemented by upgraded tile selections and a tile fireplace that extends floor-to-ceiling in the family room. The heart of the home is the deluxe kitchen, offering white upgraded countertops, a double oven, upgraded backsplash, upgraded kitchen faucet, and a functional layout perfect for cooking and entertaining. A dedicated freezer plug adds convenience, while the Christmas light package brings seasonal ease. The utility room is thoughtfully designed with upper cabinets and a mud bench, providing extra storage and organization. The home also includes blinds, gutters, and a covered patio that extends your living space outdoors. An additional 17x10 uncovered concrete area offers even more room for grilling, lounging, or future outdoor enhancements. With its 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, this Jasmine floor plan delivers comfort and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The 3-car garage provides ample parking and storage, making this home as functional as it is beautiful. Visit the Bloomfield Homes model in Mockingbird Heights. ..

17. 2026-04-23
    listed $578,812 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    Contact Community Manager for incentives! The Jasmine floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 3-car garage loaded with luxury upgrades throughout. From the moment you arrive, the home's curb appeal stands out with cedar garage doors, an inviting covered front porch, and an 8' front door that sets the tone for the elevated finishes inside. Step into an open and bright layout enhanced by upgraded laminate floors throughout the home, complemented by upgraded tile selections and a tile fireplace that extends floor-to-ceiling in the family room. The heart of the home is the deluxe kitchen, offering white upgraded countertops, a double oven, upgraded backsplash, upgraded kitchen faucet, and a functional layout perfect for cooking and entertaining. A dedicated freezer plug adds convenience, while the Christmas light package brings seasonal ease. The utility room is thoughtfully designed with upper cabinets and a mud bench, providing extra storage and organization. The home also includes blinds, gutters, and a covered patio that extends your living space outdoors. An additional 17x10 uncovered concrete area offers even more room for grilling, lounging, or future outdoor enhancements. With its 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, this Jasmine floor plan delivers comfort and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The 3-car garage provides ample parking and storage, making this home as functional as it is beautiful. Visit the Bloomfield Homes model in Mockingbird Heights. ..

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $578,812 Active 1592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1592 chars)

    *Contact Community Manager for incentives!* NEW! NEVER LIVED IN. Ready in September! Bloomfield Homes Jasmine floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 3-car garage loaded with luxury upgrades throughout. From the moment you arrive, the home’s curb appeal stands out with cedar garage doors, an inviting covered front porch, and an 8' front door that sets the tone for the elevated finishes inside. Step into an open and bright layout enhanced by upgraded laminate floors throughout the home, complemented by upgraded tile selections and a tile fireplace that extends floor-to-ceiling in the family room. The heart of the home is the deluxe kitchen, offering white upgraded countertops, a double oven, upgraded backsplash, upgraded kitchen faucet, and a functional layout perfect for cooking and entertaining. A dedicated freezer plug adds convenience, while the Christmas light package brings seasonal ease. The utility room is thoughtfully designed with upper cabinets and a mud bench, providing extra storage and organization. The home also includes blinds, gutters, and a covered patio that extends your living space outdoors. An additional 17x10 uncovered concrete area offers even more room for grilling, lounging, or future outdoor enhancements. With its 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, this Jasmine floor plan delivers comfort and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The 3-car garage provides ample parking and storage, making this home as functional as it is beautiful. Visit the Bloomfield Homes model in Mockingbird Heights to experience this home in person.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,855/yr (+$655/mo · 615.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,233
• − Management: −$3,233
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$13,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $499,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $499,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $578,812 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $578,812 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,277 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.