2534 Shiner Dr · Dundee, FL 33898

$134,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1988 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is where the heart is!! Welcome home to your GORGEOUS 4 Bedroom 2 bath fenced home!! NO HOA!! Bring your toys!! SHED INCLUDED!! Completely remodeled and updated!! Updates and additions include a 4th bedroom, NEW Kitchen Cabinets, New kitchen Counter Tops, New Baths - Vanities, New AC Unit, New AC duct work, New Well/Pump, New Lighting, New Plumbing water / sewer lines, New Siding, New Underpinning, New Porch, New Appliances, New Fixtures, New Flooring, New wall Boards / Texture, New Interior Doors, New Hardware, New Well/Pump, Retro fit elevation tie downs and lateral bars!! INVESTOR SPECIAL PERFECT RENTAL!!

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Fenced lot
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• INDEPENDENT IN-LAW SUITE
• FENCED LOT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on pillar/post/pier foundation; Crawlspace foundation; Approximately 650 sq m building area
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation access
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bartow Elementary Academy (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 518 students, 31% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.90%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $12,043
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $54,180
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,611/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 417-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   status $134,999 Pending 160 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,999 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-04-19
   price $134,999
5. 2026-03-31
   price $139,000
6. 2026-03-17
   price $143,000
7. 2026-02-19
   price $148,000
8. 2026-02-05
   price $154,000
9. 2025-12-17
   listed $155,000 Active
10. 2025-10-22
    historical
11. 2025-09-25
    price $175,000
12. 2025-04-22
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 2023-09-20
    soldstatus $99,000
14. 2023-09-13
    soldstatus $99,000 Closed 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Home is where the heart is!! Welcome home to your GORGEOUS 4 Bedroom 2 bath fenced home!! NO HOA!! Bring your toys!! SHED INCLUDED!! Completely remodeled and updated!! Updates and additions include a 4th bedroom, NEW Kitchen Cabinets, New kitchen Counter Tops, New Baths - Vanities, New AC Unit, New AC duct work, New Well/Pump, New Lighting, New Plumbing water / sewer lines, New Siding, New Underpinning, New Porch, New Appliances, New Fixtures, New Flooring, New wall Boards / Texture, New Interior Doors, New Hardware, New Well/Pump, Retro fit elevation tie downs and lateral bars!! INVESTOR SPECIAL PERFECT RENTAL!!

15. 2023-09-06
    status Pending 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Home is where the heart is!! Welcome home to your GORGEOUS 4 Bedroom 2 bath fenced home!! NO HOA!! Bring your toys!! SHED INCLUDED!! Completely remodeled and updated!! Updates and additions include a 4th bedroom, NEW Kitchen Cabinets, New kitchen Counter Tops, New Baths - Vanities, New AC Unit, New AC duct work, New Well/Pump, New Lighting, New Plumbing water / sewer lines, New Siding, New Underpinning, New Porch, New Appliances, New Fixtures, New Flooring, New wall Boards / Texture, New Interior Doors, New Hardware, New Well/Pump, Retro fit elevation tie downs and lateral bars!! INVESTOR SPECIAL PERFECT RENTAL!!

16. 2023-09-03
    listed $115,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Home is where the heart is!! Welcome home to your GORGEOUS 4 Bedroom 2 bath fenced home!! NO HOA!! Bring your toys!! SHED INCLUDED!! Completely remodeled and updated!! Updates and additions include a 4th bedroom, NEW Kitchen Cabinets, New kitchen Counter Tops, New Baths - Vanities, New AC Unit, New AC duct work, New Well/Pump, New Lighting, New Plumbing water / sewer lines, New Siding, New Underpinning, New Porch, New Appliances, New Fixtures, New Flooring, New wall Boards / Texture, New Interior Doors, New Hardware, New Well/Pump, Retro fit elevation tie downs and lateral bars!! INVESTOR SPECIAL PERFECT RENTAL!!

17. 2007-03-14
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,611 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,611 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,611
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $5,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+145.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $134,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-13 Sold (MLS) $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-03 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,611 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.