12900 Walden Rd #3 · Conroe, TX 77356

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 866 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1979 $79/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy low-maintenance living in this updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condominium located in the Walden on Lake Conroe community. The open-concept layout features vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, tile backsplash, pendant lighting, generous cabinet space, and a large breakfast bar. Recent improvements include updated electrical and plumbing systems, HVAC, water heater, interior paint, and modern finishes throughout. Thoughtful details such as recessed LED lighting, updated bath vanities, a tiled shower, and decorative metal stair balusters add style and functionality. Just minutes from Lake Conroe amenities including the marina, b

Key facts

• Large breakfast bar
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Walden HOA/18th Hole HOA with annual fee; HOA fee covers clubhouse, common area maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story; Built in 1979; Slab foundation; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved parking; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 11); Additional bedroom on the second floor (approx. 14 x 11); Living room on the first floor (approx. 16 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Tub with shower; Kitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,546
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,785
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,050/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $293	+0% $256	+5% $219	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $190	+0% $256	+5% $322	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $289	base $256	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	45d	1	0.92mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	45d	1	0.92mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	45d	2	1.10mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,050
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $2,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records