Sapphire Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$380,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,163 sqft · SingleFamily · 494 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The uniquely-designed Sapphire plan features a two-story floor plan serving as an ideal layout for any family lifestyle. The exterior of this gorgeous home boasts a spacious front porch providing excellent curb appeal. Upon entering, you are greeted by the massive family room combined with the dining area. This combination of rooms is perfect for hosting gatherings of any size. Across the dining room is stairway access to the second floor, as well as a convenient walk-in storage closet. Facing the family room is your open concept, integrated kitchen and breakfast area. Your kitchen is fully equipped with attractive features like granite countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a kitchen island for extra counterspace, and an oversized walk-in pantry! Completing the first floor is the second storage closet, the convenient downstairs powder room, and entry to your two-car garage. Right off the breakfast area, you will discover access to your backyard and can choose to include a covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out during backyard barbecues. Wander upstairs where you will find a spacious game room, perfect for hosting family game nights that the kids will love, along with the private master suite, two remaining bedrooms, the walk-in utility room, and the full secondary bath complete with a walk-in storage closet. Your secluded master suite is down the hall from the other two bedrooms and features. ..

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Dining area
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $380,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $416,302.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $381k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,087 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,302
• List price: $380,990
• Delta: -8.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 Bramante St	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-1%)	3mo	$349,990	$163	83
1421 Marcella Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-1%)	2mo	$350,000	$163	82
1428 Florence Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+2%)	3mo	$404,950	$184	82
1425 Marcella Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$163	82
1436 Bramante	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,193 (+1%)	2mo	$399,950	$182	81
1439 Florence Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,041 (-6%)	4mo	$449,970	$220	80
1424 Florence Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,330 (+8%)	2mo	$414,970	$178	72
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,231 (+3%)	3mo	$417,635	$187	70
1501 Buchanan Way	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,229 (+3%)	4mo	$365,999	$164	63
1013 Fallow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,438 (+13%)	0mo	$406,551	$167	56
1413 Buchanan Way	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (-11%)	2mo	$336,999	$175	50
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (-4%)	3mo	$352,999	$169	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-117,460
• Equity at exit: $62,072

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-187,776
• Equity at exit: $35,994

Cash invested: $116,565 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 101 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $423,715 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 226 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,245/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,642

Max offer price $321,322

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-513	+0% $-656	+5% $-800	+10% $-944
Rent	-10% $-878	-5% $-767	+0% $-656	+5% $-545	+10% $-434
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-551	base $-656	+0.5pp $-764	+1.0pp $-874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,076
• Closing costs: $12,489
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,295	$1.22	23d	1	0.09mi
1421 Marcella Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$2,395	$1.12	42d	1	0.18mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.49mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	48d	1	0.52mi
2008 Winnsboro Ave Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,300	$1.17	41d	1	0.89mi
17405 W FM 455 Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2078	$3,500	$1.68	0d	1	1.00mi
7592 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	2.0	2.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	92d	1	1.02mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	0d	1	1.13mi
1404 Pintail Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,300	$1.41	10d	1	1.17mi
1513 Waxwing Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$3,300	$1.33	10d	1	1.24mi
401 Osprey Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2833	$3,150	$1.11	92d	1	1.27mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	92d	1	1.34mi
1613 Sandhill Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$2,700	$1.36	28d	1	1.34mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	92d	1	1.41mi
720 Mulberry Ct Celina, TX	3.0	3.0	2093	$2,295	$1.10	30d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $380,990 Active 494 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $380,990 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $380,990 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $380,990 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $380,990 Active 489 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $380,990 Active 486 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $380,990 Active 485 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $380,990 Active 484 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $380,990 Active 483 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $380,990 Active 481 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $380,990 Active 479 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $380,990 Active 478 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $380,990 Active 477 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $380,990 Active 476 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $380,990 Active 475 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $380,990 Active 473 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $380,990 Active 472 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $380,990 Active 471 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $380,990 Active 470 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $380,990 Active 469 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $380,990 Active 468 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $380,990 Active 467 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $380,990 Active 466 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $380,990 Active 465 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $380,990 Active 464 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $380,990 Active 462 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $380,990 Active 461 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $380,990 Active 460 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $380,990 Active 459 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $380,990 Active 458 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $380,990 Active 457 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $380,990 Active 456 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $380,990 Active 455 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $380,990 Active 454 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $380,990 Active 453 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $380,990 Active 452 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $380,990 Active 451 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $380,990 Active 449 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $380,990 Active 447 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $380,990 Active 446 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $380,990 Active 443 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $380,990 Active 442 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $380,990 Active 441 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $380,990 Active 440 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $380,990 Active 438 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $380,990 Active 434 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $380,990 Active 433 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $380,990 Active 432 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $380,990 Active 429 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,990 Active 428 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,319
• − Property taxes: −$6,245
• − Insurance: −$2,082
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,698
• − Management: −$2,698
• − Depreciation: −$12,111
• Taxable loss: −$15,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a spacious front porch and modern interior. It is move-in ready and offers high ROI through minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior finishes.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental income. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms can significantly boost the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance both the home's resale and rental appeal. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $380,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $425,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $429,990 Zillow