24992 Country Estates Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$210,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1983 0.76 ac lot $105/sqft · 13% below area Est $241k · 13% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home conveniently located near the city center, just minute to Loop 99 and Hwy 59. This property offers endless possibilities—whether you envision a personal workshop, a small farm, or income-producing mobile home rentals. Inside, the home features durable waterproof vinyl flooring throughout, providing both style and easy maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the wooden deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Opportunities like this are rare at this price point—don’t miss your chance! Schedule your showing today, as this charming property is sure to sell quickly.

Key facts

• Personal workshop
• Small farm
• Wooden deck

Tags

• PERSONAL WORKSHOP
• SMALL FARM
• WATERPROOF VINYL FLOORING
• WOODEN DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,963 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,124
• List price: $210,500
• Delta: -12.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19116 Sonora Chase Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,942 (-3%)	1mo	$259,900	$134	62
24893 Rainbow Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,089 (+4%)	11mo	$195,000	$93	59
19506 Rosali Meadow Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (-8%)	1mo	$260,000	$141	58
19121 Sonora Chase Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-8%)	7mo	$250,000	$135	56
19122 Pegara Manor Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,801 (-10%)	9mo	$260,000	$144	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-45,627
• Equity at exit: $31,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-68,003
• Equity at exit: $18,200

Cash invested: $58,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,104
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,427/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $192,963

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-40	+0% $-99	+5% $-159	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-177	+0% $-99	+5% $-22	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-46	base $-99	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,625
• Closing costs: $6,315
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19308 Via Vinovo Ct New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Beautiful home conveniently located near the city center, just minute to Loop 99 and Hwy 59. This property offers endless possibilities—whether you envision a personal workshop, a small farm, or income-producing mobile home rentals. Inside, the home features durable waterproof vinyl flooring throughout, providing both style and easy maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the wooden deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Opportunities like this are rare at this price point—don’t miss your chance! Schedule your showing today, as this charming property is sure to sell quickly.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $210,500 Active 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Beautiful home conveniently located near the city center, just minute to Loop 99 and Hwy 59. This property offers endless possibilities—whether you envision a personal workshop, a small farm, or income-producing mobile home rentals. Inside, the home features durable waterproof vinyl flooring throughout, providing both style and easy maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the wooden deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Opportunities like this are rare at this price point—don’t miss your chance! Schedule your showing today, as this charming property is sure to sell quickly.

3. 2022-08-17
   soldstatus
4. 2022-08-12
   soldstatus Sold 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

5. 2022-07-15
   status Pending 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

6. 2022-06-19
   price $222,000 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

7. 2022-06-03
   status Active 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

8. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus
9. 2022-05-13
   status Pending 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

10. 2022-05-04
    listed $226,000 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Welcome to a peaceful and beautiful home in the middle of the New Caney woods but still very close to the city center and just a 3-minute drive from Loop 99 or a 7-minute drive to Hwy 59. With this large plot of land and no HOA, you can open up your imagination for a personal shop, a small farm, or even rental mobile home opportunities. The house has a complete renovation, fresh paint in/ex-terior, new HVAC system, high quality waterproof vinyl floor for the entire house, new appliance, and even more with a new wooden deck. This is a rare opportunity in the area for this price. Come today to view this lovely home because this property won't last long!

11. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,427 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,427 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,791
• − Property taxes: −$5,427
• − Insurance: −$1,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$6,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-67/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $210,500 HARMLS
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-19 Price Changed $222,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $226,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,427 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.