500 E Water St · Litchfield, IL 62056

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 789 sqft · SingleFamily · 179 Days on market

Built 1946 10,018 sqft lot $49/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic starter home or income-producing opportunity! This two bed, one bath home offers a nice, clean exterior with classic and easy-to-maintain white vinyl siding, a covered front porch, and endless potential to turn what's there into something extraordinary! When you pull up to 500 E Water Street it's easy to image the possibilities. There's a one car detached garage that's extra long for additional storage. The back yard is surprisingly large, offering an easy shape to fence in. Inside, the sellers have removed the old carpet and have started the work of refinishing the original hardwood floors. One less step you have to take! The eat in kitchen is bright and includes the refrigerator and stove. There's also a mud room coming in from the garage. That's where you'll find the included washer and dryer (functionality unknown) and access for the basement. There's big bedrooms with hardwood floors. A very functional layout!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Clean exterior
• White vinyl siding

Tags

• CLEAN EXTERIOR
• WHITE VINYL SIDING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE BACK YARD
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.5% in Litchfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#448 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Litchfield CUSD 12 (town): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #359 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $39k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.83%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,885
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -57.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 E Tyler Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	811 (+3%)	1mo	$82,000	$101	87
128 E Columbia St	0.33mi	2/1.0	778 (-1%)	13mo	$20,000	$26	72
821 S Chestnut St	0.15mi	2/1.0	871 (+10%)	6mo	$116,900	$134	71
708 S Jefferson St	0.39mi	2/1.0	864 (+10%)	2mo	$99,000	$115	64
603 E Columbia St	0.31mi	2/1.0	832 (+5%)	20mo	$37,000	$44	60
124 W Buchanan St	0.37mi	2/1.0	884 (+12%)	4mo	$27,000	$31	59
416 S Walnut St	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	860 (+9%)	19mo	$52,000	$60	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $14,502
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $39,594
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62056

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $337	+0% $326	+5% $315	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $293	+0% $326	+5% $359	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $336	base $326	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $39,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 158 DOM
17. 2025-12-23
    listed $50,000 Active 938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (938 chars)

    Fantastic starter home or income-producing opportunity! This two bed, one bath home offers a nice, clean exterior with classic and easy-to-maintain white vinyl siding, a covered front porch, and endless potential to turn what's there into something extraordinary! When you pull up to 500 E Water Street it's easy to image the possibilities. There's a one car detached garage that's extra long for additional storage. The back yard is surprisingly large, offering an easy shape to fence in. Inside, the sellers have removed the old carpet and have started the work of refinishing the original hardwood floors. One less step you have to take! The eat in kitchen is bright and includes the refrigerator and stove. There's also a mud room coming in from the garage. That's where you'll find the included washer and dryer (functionality unknown) and access for the basement. There's big bedrooms with hardwood floors. A very functional layout!

18. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $3,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $3,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Litchfield CUSD 12
• NCES district ID: 1723250
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,133
• Composite: 20.91/100
• National rank: #8485
• State rank: #359 of 620 in IL

Livability — Litchfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #9263

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Litchfield, IL
• City population: 8,591
• Population (ZIP): 8,591

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,471 people
• By 2030: 26,410 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 24,233 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 21,948 · -20.1%
• By 2075: 16,686 · -39.3%
• By 2100: 11,369 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.1% · R 71.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+14.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.86%
• Current HPI: 149.5766
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,425 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.