Raleigh Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$399,840

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Full-sized bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL-SIZED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $399,840 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $576,942.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,325/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,530 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.10%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,942
• List price: $399,840
• Delta: -30.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7176 119th Ct E	0.68mi	5/4.0	2,776 (-4%)	4mo	$414,740	$149	52
11593 69th Pl E	0.55mi	5/4.5	3,100 (+7%)	5mo	$661,090	$213	50
12805 Dockyard Trl	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (-10%)	6mo	$499,999	$192	36
6909 E 116th Ct	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,068 (+6%)	14mo	$504,040	$164	36
12731 Dockyard Trl	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (-10%)	5mo	$489,999	$188	35
6862 E 115th St	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,068 (+6%)	16mo	$529,990	$173	34
6834 E 115th St	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (-9%)	15mo	$509,540	$192	34
6913 116th Ct E	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (-9%)	13mo	$508,540	$192	34
12723 Dockyard Trl	0.75mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (-10%)	7mo	$509,999	$196	33
11420 Campania Ter	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,206 (+11%)	11mo	$735,200	$229	32
6845 E 115th St	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (-9%)	16mo	$559,900	$212	32
7144 119th Ct E	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (-14%)	8mo	$384,340	$155	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-194,004
• Equity at exit: $86,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.00×
• Total profit: $-323,223
• Equity at exit: $49,883

Cash invested: $161,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.9 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $467,240 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,026
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$721 /mo · $8,654/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-1,427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,131

Max offer price $370,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,028	-5% $-1,227	+0% $-1,427	+5% $-1,626	+10% $-1,825
Rent	-10% $-1,689	-5% $-1,558	+0% $-1,427	+5% $-1,295	+10% $-1,164
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,136	-0.5pp $-1,280	base $-1,427	+0.5pp $-1,576	+1.0pp $-1,728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,236
• Closing costs: $17,308
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11580 69th Pl E Palmetto, FL	5.0	4.0	3336	$3,600	$1.08	10d	1	0.57mi
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	119d	1	0.81mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	119d	1	0.87mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	119d	1	0.90mi
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2470	$3,000	$1.21	6d	1	0.90mi
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2505	$3,000	$1.20	7d	1	0.90mi
5825 Fieldmoor Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.5	3448	$3,899	$1.13	2d	1	1.05mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	80d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Raleigh plan)Inventory listed as a plan
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Living area about 2,896
• Exterior features: Property at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction Plan: Raleigh)Living area approximately 2,896

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $399,840 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $399,840 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $399,840 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $399,840 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $399,840 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $412,840 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $412,840 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $406,340 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $406,340 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $406,340 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $406,340 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $406,340 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $405,840 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $405,840 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $405,840 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $405,340 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $404,840 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    price $404,840 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $404,340 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $404,340 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $404,340 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $404,340 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    price $404,340 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $403,840 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $403,840 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $403,840 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $403,840 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $403,840 Active 120 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    price $403,840 Active 119 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $403,340 Active 119 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $403,340 Active 118 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $403,340 Active 117 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $403,340 Active 116 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $403,340 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $403,340 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $403,340 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $403,340 Active 112 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $403,340 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $403,340 Active 110 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $403,340 Active 109 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $403,340 Active 108 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $403,340 Active 107 DOM
43. 2026-08-07
    pricedays on market $403,340 Active 106 DOM
44. 2026-08-06
    days on market $402,840 Active 105 DOM
45. 2026-08-05
    days on market $402,840 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-08-04
    days on market $402,840 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $402,840 Active 99 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $402,840 Active 97 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $402,840 Active 96 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $402,840 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,318
• − Property taxes: −$8,654
• − Insurance: −$3,682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,192
• − Management: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$16,784
• Taxable loss: −$27,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,480–$43,440 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. Potential updates could include painting the exterior siding and replacing the carpet with hardwood flooring to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Raleigh plan)Inventory listed as a plan
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Living area about 2,896
• Exterior features: Property at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction Plan: Raleigh)Living area approximately 2,896