Raleigh Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$363,490

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Full-sized bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL-SIZED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $363,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $531,334.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1708 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,122/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,177 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,334
• List price: $363,490
• Delta: -31.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7176 119th Ct E	0.45mi	5/4.0	2,776 (-4%)	6mo	$414,740	$149	61
11761 E 71st Ter	0.31mi	5/4.0	2,771 (-4%)	14mo	$387,900	$140	60
11745 E 71st Ter	0.34mi	5/4.0	2,771 (-4%)	15mo	$407,890	$147	58
11744 E 71st Ter	0.35mi	5/4.0	2,771 (-4%)	15mo	$421,900	$152	58
6909 E 116th Ct	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,068 (+6%)	16mo	$504,040	$164	55
11593 69th Pl E	0.44mi	5/4.5	3,100 (+7%)	7mo	$661,090	$213	54
6913 116th Ct E	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (-9%)	15mo	$508,540	$192	53
6069 Maidenstone Way	0.57mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,921 (+1%)	8mo	$680,000	$233	52
10815 Fieldstone Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (-9%)	3mo	$480,000	$183	48
7144 119th Ct E	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (-14%)	10mo	$384,340	$155	45
11749 E 71st Ave	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (-14%)	15mo	$373,290	$151	42
8346 Abalone Loop	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,230 (+12%)	8mo	$480,000	$149	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-176,186
• Equity at exit: $79,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-292,753
• Equity at exit: $45,940

Cash invested: $148,774 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 89 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.1 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $477,240 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1708
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$664 /mo · $7,970/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-1,272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,732

Max offer price $347,246

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-905	-5% $-1,089	+0% $-1,272	+5% $-1,456	+10% $-1,639
Rent	-10% $-1,519	-5% $-1,396	+0% $-1,272	+5% $-1,149	+10% $-1,026
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,005	-0.5pp $-1,137	base $-1,272	+0.5pp $-1,410	+1.0pp $-1,550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,834
• Closing costs: $15,940
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2505	$3,000	$1.20	52d	1	0.37mi
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2470	$3,000	$1.21	51d	1	0.37mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	164d	1	0.38mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	1d	1	0.38mi
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	164d	1	0.40mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	1d	1	0.40mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	164d	1	0.40mi
11811 71st Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	2487	$2,600	$1.05	1d	1	0.42mi
11580 69th Pl E Palmetto, FL	5.0	4.0	3336	$3,600	$1.08	55d	1	0.46mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	125d	1	0.56mi
5825 Fieldmoor Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.5	3448	$3,800	$1.10	0d	1	0.68mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	110d	1	0.71mi
5951 Maidenstone Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,700	$1.16	5d	1	0.73mi
8415 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,699	$1.22	119d	1	0.77mi
8423 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2615	$2,650	$1.01	10d	1	0.77mi
8518 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2615	$2,500	$0.96	10d	1	0.86mi
5759 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,700	$1.29	32d	1	0.94mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	160d	1	0.95mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	164d	1	0.98mi
8717 Windlass Cv Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2615	$2,995	$1.15	2d	1	1.07mi
5435 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,650	$1.22	11d	1	1.10mi
11875 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,895	$1.35	10d	1	1.11mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$2,500	$1.01	55d	1	1.46mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2458	$2,650	$1.08	52d	1	1.46mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2466	$4,250	$1.72	0d	1	1.46mi
9324 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2458	$2,800	$1.14	55d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Raleigh plan)Inventory listed as a plan
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Living area about 2,896
• Exterior features: Property at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction Plan: Raleigh)Living area approximately 2,896

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $363,490 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $363,490 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $363,490 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $363,490 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $363,490 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $377,990 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $377,990 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $377,990 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $377,990 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $377,990 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $377,990 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $377,990 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $377,990 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $377,990 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $377,990 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $377,990 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $377,990 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $376,990 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $376,990 Active 181 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $376,990 Active 180 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $376,990 Active 179 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $376,990 Active 178 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $376,990 Active 177 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $376,990 Active 176 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $376,990 Active 175 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $376,990 Active 174 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    price $376,990 Active 173 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $391,840 Active 173 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $391,840 Active 172 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $391,840 Active 171 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $391,840 Active 170 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $391,840 Active 169 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $391,840 Active 168 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $391,840 Active 167 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $391,840 Active 166 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $391,840 Active 165 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $391,840 Active 164 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    pricedays on market $391,840 Active 163 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $399,840 Active 162 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $399,840 Active 161 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $399,840 Active 160 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $399,840 Active 159 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $399,840 Active 158 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $399,840 Active 157 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $399,840 Active 155 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $399,840 Active 154 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $399,840 Active 152 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $399,840 Active 151 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $399,840 Active 150 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $399,840 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,763
• − Property taxes: −$7,970
• − Insurance: −$3,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,997
• − Management: −$2,997
• − Depreciation: −$15,457
• Taxable loss: −$25,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,480–$43,440 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. Potential updates could include painting the exterior siding and replacing the carpet with hardwood flooring to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Raleigh plan)Inventory listed as a plan
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Living area about 2,896
• Exterior features: Property at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction Plan: Raleigh)Living area approximately 2,896