44 Retreat Way · Fenton, MI 48430

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 456 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Ponemah Lakeside Retreat, Fenton’s newest second-home resort community on all-sports Lake Ponemah. A rare opportunity to secure your own lakeside getaway! This custom-built tiny home features premium Hardy Smart Lap siding, modern white-trimmed windows, and a spacious 6-foot covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying lake breezes. Inside, the bright, open layout includes a white shaker kitchen with farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, thoughtful storage, a comfortable bedroom, and a full-size bath with stylish finishes. Owner financing via Land Contract, 20% down payment, 7% down and $500 monthly payment. Community amenities include resident-only boat slips, sandy beach, community fire pit, playground & splash pad, garden, bathhouse, laundry, and arcade. Lot rent $500/month; optional boat slip $1,500/year. This is a seasonal, second-home community—short-term rentals are not permitted, ensuring a peaceful retreat atmosphere. Don’t miss this rare chance to own in Fenton’s newest lakeside community on beautiful Lake Ponemah!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Sandy beach
• White shaker kitchen

Tags

• CUSTOM-BUILT TINY HOME
• COVERED PORCH
• WHITE SHAKER KITCHEN
• RESIDENT-ONLY BOAT SLIPS
• SANDY BEACH
• COMMUNITY FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,131
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $21,940
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $89,000 Pending 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2025-11-06
   listed $89,000 Active 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

   Welcome to Ponemah Lakeside Retreat, Fenton's newest second-home resort community on all-sports Lake Ponemah. A rare opportunity to secure your own lakeside getaway! This custom-built tiny home features premium Hardy Smart Lap siding, modern white-trimmed windows, and a spacious 6-foot covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying lake breezes. Inside, the bright, open layout includes a white shaker kitchen with farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, thoughtful storage, a comfortable bedroom, and a full-size bath with stylish finishes. Owner financing via Land Contract, 20% down payment, 7% down and $500 monthly payment. Community amenities include resident-only boat slips, sandy beach, community fire pit, playground & splash pad, garden, bathhouse, laundry, and arcade. Lot rent $500/month; optional boat slip $1,500/year. This is a seasonal, second-home community - short-term rentals are not permitted, ensuring a peaceful retreat atmosphere. Don't miss this rare chance to own in Fenton's newest lakeside community on beautiful Lake Ponemah!

6. 2025-11-06
   listed $89,000 Active 1068-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

   Welcome to Ponemah Lakeside Retreat, Fenton's newest second-home resort community on all-sports Lake Ponemah. A rare opportunity to secure your own lakeside getaway! This custom-built tiny home features premium Hardy Smart Lap siding, modern white-trimmed windows, and a spacious 6-foot covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying lake breezes. Inside, the bright, open layout includes a white shaker kitchen with farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, thoughtful storage, a comfortable bedroom, and a full-size bath with stylish finishes. Owner financing via Land Contract, 20% down payment, 7% down and $500 monthly payment. Community amenities include resident-only boat slips, sandy beach, community fire pit, playground & splash pad, garden, bathhouse, laundry, and arcade. Lot rent $500/month; optional boat slip $1,500/year. This is a seasonal, second-home community - short-term rentals are not permitted, ensuring a peaceful retreat atmosphere. Don't miss this rare chance to own in Fenton's newest lakeside community on beautiful Lake Ponemah!

7. 2025-11-05
   historical
8. 2025-11-05
   historical
9. 2025-09-24
   listed $89,000 Active
10. 2025-09-24
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $1,898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern finishes and a spacious covered porch, making it an attractive lakeside getaway.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both add a small garden or patio area — increases living space and enhances curb appeal
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both add a small garden or patio area — increases living space and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-24 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-24 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS