46627 Yorktown Rd · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$228,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1947 $177/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

Key facts

• Fresh updates
• Convenient location
• Welcoming entryway

Tags

• WELCOMING ENTRYWAY
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• FRESH UPDATES
• YARD SPACE
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $229k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,166 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,482
• List price: $228,900
• Delta: 3.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46465 Midway Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,420 (+10%)	8mo	$196,000	$138	58
22055 Fox Ridge Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,326 (+3%)	7mo	$355,000	$268	57
21684 Saratoga Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	12mo	$190,000	$173	53
21722 Cabot Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	14mo	$275,000	$250	52
21676 N Essex Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	16mo	$190,000	$173	51
22056 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+8%)	2mo	$315,000	$225	45
22024 Fox Ridge Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-9%)	8mo	$340,000	$289	43
46446 Midway Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	10mo	$235,500	$214	42
46701 Thomas Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+13%)	4mo	$315,000	$216	41
46460 Franklin Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-9%)	23mo	$215,000	$184	41
21549 Morris Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (+12%)	18mo	$325,000	$225	40
46468 Midway Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	24mo	$182,000	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,327
• Equity at exit: $34,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,438
• Equity at exit: $19,791

Cash invested: $64,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,576/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,806

Max offer price $228,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $629	-5% $565	+0% $500	+5% $435	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $403	+0% $500	+5% $596	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $558	base $500	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,225
• Closing costs: $6,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21967 Cuddihy Rd Patuxent River, MD	3.0	2.5	1770	$2,466	$1.39	25d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $228,900 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-04-27
   price $228,900 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

3. 2026-03-28
   price $232,900 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

4. 2026-03-27
   status Active 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

5. 2026-03-03
   historical Active Under Contract 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

6. 2026-02-17
   listed $225,000 Active 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Seller now offering 3% toward buyers closing costs!! Spacious & Updated 4-Bedroom Home in the Heart of Lexington Park New Roof in last few years. Welcome home to this move-in-ready, two-level gem offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value! With four bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home provides the flexibility you need for today’s lifestyle. The main level bedroom can be utilized for a variety of purposes; think home office, kids homeschool space, exercise room, craft/hobby room. Enjoy the fresh updates throughout, including brand new carpeting, and fresh paint giving the home a crisp, modern feel from top to bottom. Extra Large rear yard

7. 2019-03-29
   soldstatus $70,000
8. 2019-03-28
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   This 4 bedroom 1 bath home boast's good size bedrooms and updates throughout! Very affordable and provides ample parking space, patio and deck space as well as a sizable yard.

9. 2019-03-19
   status Pending 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   This 4 bedroom 1 bath home boast's good size bedrooms and updates throughout! Very affordable and provides ample parking space, patio and deck space as well as a sizable yard.

10. 2019-03-04
    historical Active Under Contract 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 1 bath home boast's good size bedrooms and updates throughout! Very affordable and provides ample parking space, patio and deck space as well as a sizable yard.

11. 2019-01-30
    listed $87,500 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 1 bath home boast's good size bedrooms and updates throughout! Very affordable and provides ample parking space, patio and deck space as well as a sizable yard.

12. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus $40,000
13. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold
14. 2015-04-10
    status Contract
15. 2015-04-07
    price $42,000
16. 2015-03-07
    listed $45,000 Active
17. 2014-02-11
    historical
18. 2014-02-11
    historical
19. 2014-01-18
    status Contract
20. 2014-01-15
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
21. 2014-01-02
    price
22. 2013-12-24
    price
23. 2013-11-10
    price
24. 2013-10-02
    listed Active
25. 2013-10-02
    listed $50,085
26. 2012-06-11
    historical Withdrawn
27. 2012-06-11
    historical
28. 2012-05-02
    status Active
29. 2012-02-16
    status Contract
30. 2012-01-24
    price Active
31. 2012-01-24
    status Active
32. 2012-01-01
    historical Expired
33. 2011-11-22
    price
34. 2011-01-24
    status Active
35. 2011-01-10
    historical Expired
36. 2011-01-08
    price Active
37. 2011-01-08
    status Active
38. 2010-08-15
    status Contract
39. 2010-07-06
    status Active
40. 2010-06-25
    historical
41. 2010-06-17
    listed Active
42. 2010-06-17
    listed $89,000
43. 2009-11-23
    historical Withdrawn
44. 2009-11-23
    historical
45. 2009-08-07
    listed Active
46. 2009-08-07
    listed $189,900
47. 2008-03-17
    soldstatus $189,900
48. 2008-03-17
    soldstatus $189,900
49. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus $189,900
50. 2006-08-03
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,822
• − Property taxes: −$1,576
• − Insurance: −$1,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$6,659
• Taxable income: $2,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$572
• After-tax cash flow: $5,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+176.8% since first listed

60 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $228,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $232,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-30 Listed $87,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRIS
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-04-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-04-07 Price Changed $42,000 MRIS
• 2015-03-07 Listed $45,000 MRIS
• 2014-02-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-18 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-01-15 Contingent — MRIS
• 2014-01-02 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2013-12-24 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2013-11-10 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2013-10-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $50,085 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-06-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-06-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-05-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-02-16 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-01-24 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-01-24 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2012-01-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-11-22 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-01-24 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-08 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-08 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-08-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-07-06 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-06-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-06-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-06-17 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-11-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-08-07 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2008-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2006-08-31 Sold (MLS) $189,900 MRIS
• 2006-08-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-07-20 Listed $189,900 MRIS
• 2003-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2003-02-20 Sold (MLS) $104,900 MRIS
• 2003-01-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-11-26 Listed $104,900 MRIS
• 2001-07-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-06-11 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,700 Public Records
• 1999-07-06 Sold (MLS) $82,700 MRIS
• 1999-06-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-06-17 Listed $82,700 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,576 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.