5484 Canvasback Rd · Blaine, WA 98230

$1,150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2001 0.47 ac lot $284/sqft · 15% below area Est $1346k · 15% under $148/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunningly updated and exceptionally versatile, this Semiahmoo custom home offers over 4,000 square feet of refined living space designed to accommodate a wide range of lifestyles. The centerpiece of the home is a true chef’s kitchen, completely rebuilt with brand-new cabinetry, fixtures, countertops, backsplash, flooring, sink, and a new six-foot window that floods the space with natural light. Centrally located and beautifully connected to the breakfast nook and main living areas, it is both a showpiece and the functional heart of the home. With the potential for primary suite living on the main level in addition to the expansive upstairs primary. The upstairs primary suite features

Key facts

• Pond
• Waterfall
• Full-length deck

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• FULL-LENGTH DECK
• LOW-MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• POND
• WATERFALL
• MATURE PERENNIAL LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-59k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (74.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (74.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (74.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.1% in Blaine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $123k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $115k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$198k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $611k; list at $1.15M implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $288,165 (74.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 75% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.26% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.18%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 32.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,346,284
• List price: $1,150,000
• Delta: -14.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5506 Canvasback Rd	0.13mi	3/3.5	3,560 (-12%)	1mo	$1,329,000	$373	69
8849 Goldeneye Ln	0.40mi	3/3.5	4,055 (+0%)	14mo	$1,098,500	$271	65
8870 Cormorant Ct	0.21mi	3/3.5	3,697 (-9%)	11mo	$1,425,000	$385	63
8777 Goshawk Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,494 (-14%)	0mo	$985,000	$282	63
8798 Wood Duck Way	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	4,193 (+4%)	10mo	$1,295,000	$309	62
5436 Quail Run	0.22mi	3/3.5	4,202 (+4%)	22mo	$1,335,000	$318	61
5423 Canvasback Rd	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	4,362 (+8%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$252	59
5436 Night Heron Dr	0.25mi	3/4.0	4,188 (+4%)	24mo	$1,950,000	$466	57
5543 Night Heron Dr	0.29mi	3/5.0	3,584 (-11%)	2mo	$1,359,000	$379	56
8986 Merganser Ct	0.37mi	3/3.5	3,761 (-7%)	17mo	$1,445,000	$384	53
5578 Sandpiper Ln	0.33mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,850 (-5%)	18mo	$1,251,000	$325	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $315,492
• Equity at exit: $1,036,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $1,173,230
• Equity at exit: $2,234,197

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 32.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,735/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-4,879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,138

Max offer price $288,165

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $1,150,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $1,195,000
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $1,234,500 Active
18. 2018-02-21
    soldstatus $611,000 Sold
19. 2018-02-21
    soldstatus $611,000
20. 2018-02-08
    status Pending
21. 2018-01-31
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2017-07-24
    listed $655,000 Active
23. 2005-02-28
    soldstatus $470,000
24. 2005-02-19
    soldstatus $470,000
25. 2004-09-26
    listed $499,900
26. 2004-09-15
    soldstatus $435,000
27. 2004-09-15
    soldstatus $435,000
28. 2004-04-08
    listed $449,900
29. 1999-06-08
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,735 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,270 · $939/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,535/yr (+$378/mo · 67.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥79°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$6,735
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,844
• − Management: −$2,844
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable loss: −$82,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-38,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2072.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $1,195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $1,234,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $611,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-21 Sold (MLS) $611,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-24 Listed $655,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $470,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-19 Sold (MLS) $470,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-26 Listed $499,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-15 Sold (MLS) $435,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-08 Listed $449,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,735 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.