251 Patterson Rd Unit J3 · Haines City, FL 33844

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Built 1972 3,032 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CENTRAL FLORIDA 55+COMMUNITY LIFESTYLE AT ITS BEST. .. .. OWN YOUR LAND. .. PARTIALLY FURNISHED 1 BEDROOM/ 1 BATH HOME. Inside laundry closet with stackable washer/dryer. Metal Roof and Windows were replaced. HVAC age approx 5-6 years. No rear neighbors as you have a green space to the fence for your outside enjoyment. Shed on property for additional storage needs. WEST VIEW RIDGE is a GATED COMMUNITY offering a Recreational Building, SOLAR HEATER POOL, Mini Putt Putt Golf, PICKLE BALL COURT, Bocce Ball, Shuffleboard and many more amenities and activities in the community. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways leading to our Florida Attractions and East/West Coast Beaches. Wh

Key facts

• Gated community
• Solar heater pool
• Pickle ball court

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SOLAR HEATER POOL
• PICKLE BALL COURT
• INSIDE LAUNDRY CLOSET
• SHED ON PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.07 acre (approx. 50 x 70, asphalt road); Living area reported as 768 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee of $80.83; annual fee $970); Association amenities include gated access, pool, recreation facilities, pickleball courts and shuffleboard court; Association fee covers pool, recreational facilities, trash and escrow reserves fund; Senior community; Dogs allowed; Deed restrictions; Community mailbox; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Two levels; Faces west; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.00%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $9,708
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $31,535
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.05mi
1052 Windsor Rd Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,349	$1.41	11d	14	1.18mi
220 Champions Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1107	$1,456	$1.32	2d	7	1.21mi
1004 Hemingway Cir Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	845	$1,300	$1.54	3d	1	1.22mi
1003 Hemingway Cir Unit 1003 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,200	$1.42	23d	1	1.23mi
2109 N 13th St Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	772	$1,300	$1.68	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 416 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 415 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 412 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 408 DOM
14. 2026-02-23
    price $80,000
15. 2025-10-10
    price $99,000
16. 2025-10-02
    price $110,000
17. 2025-04-18
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$891
• After-tax cash flow: $3,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid