407 Saddle Blanket Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$273,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot Est $263k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Amazing floor plan! Four bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D. R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Large island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• NEW D R HORTON COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,441 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,946
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,801 (0%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	99
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,801 (0%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	96
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+12%)	0mo	$324,990	$161	76
505 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (+8%)	1mo	$269,990	$139	76
411 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+12%)	3mo	$288,490	$143	75
512 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+12%)	2mo	$291,535	$144	72
506 American Elm Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+6%)	3mo	$279,490	$146	70
505 Plum Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+5%)	3mo	$265,000	$140	69
516 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	1mo	$301,490	$148	68
311 American Elm Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,037 (+13%)	3mo	$281,490	$138	60
205 Weathered Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+13%)	2mo	$342,990	$168	58
806 Community Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,070 (+15%)	3mo	$289,900	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $128,620
• Equity at exit: $246,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $395,130
• Equity at exit: $532,302

Cash invested: $76,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $227,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-230	+0% $-324	+5% $-419	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-405	+0% $-324	+5% $-244	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-255	base $-324	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,498
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.06mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.07mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.07mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	0.17mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.42mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.64mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.66mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.69mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.75mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.87mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.88mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	0.88mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.89mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.89mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.89mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.91mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	3d	1	0.93mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	0.93mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	0.93mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	0.97mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.01mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	1.02mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.02mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	1.03mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.05mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.12mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.12mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.20mi
1910 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,995	$1.25	26d	1	1.43mi
2000 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1947	$2,500	$1.28	4d	1	1.44mi
2008 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,975	$1.31	20d	1	1.46mi
816 Country Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$2,550	$1.23	0d	1	1.49mi
903 Shear Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1898	$2,000	$1.05	4d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $273,990
3. 2026-02-25
   price $280,990
4. 2026-02-12
   price $279,490
5. 2026-01-12
   listed $307,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$8,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $273,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $280,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $279,490 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $307,490 NTREIS