1408 Cherry Ln · Niles, MI 49120

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1977 0.80 ac lot $113/sqft · 21% below area Est $192k · 33% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

Key facts

• New doors
• New siding
• Nearly an acre

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• WOODED LAND
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• NEW DOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Brandywine Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #342 of 540 in MI (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.71%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,316
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -32.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1321 Fairfield Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+1%)	1mo	$200,000	$173	73
1315 Lawndale Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+1%)	18mo	$215,000	$187	65
1312 Emerald Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,136 (-1%)	1mo	$112,100	$99	65
1951 S 14th St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (-14%)	6mo	$151,000	$153	64
1803 S 15th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,146 (+0%)	24mo	$228,000	$199	61
2019 S 3rd St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,075 (-6%)	5mo	$169,000	$157	50
1114 Lawndale Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,019 (-11%)	15mo	$175,500	$172	50
1409 Fairfield Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,037 (-9%)	14mo	$168,000	$162	48
1909 Bell Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	994 (-13%)	1mo	$236,900	$238	43
2314 Westfield Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	992 (-13%)	4mo	$94,500	$95	42
1512 Northfield Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-10%)	15mo	$167,250	$163	36
1501 Northfield Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+9%)	22mo	$184,900	$148	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,897
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,739
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49120

• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $208	+0% $172	+5% $135	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $115	+0% $172	+5% $229	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $205	base $172	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
411 Fort St Niles, MI	2.0	2.0	794	$1,708	$2.15	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $129,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $135,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

18. 2026-04-16
    price $135,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

19. 2026-04-16
    price $135,000

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

20. 2026-04-01
    price $145,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

21. 2026-04-01
    price $145,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

22. 2026-04-01
    price $145,000

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

23. 2026-02-14
    listed $150,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

24. 2026-02-14
    listed $150,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

25. 2026-02-14
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this incredible equity-building property in Niles! This 3-bedroom, 1-2 bath home sits on nearly an acre of wooded land, offering privacy and endless potential. Completely gutted and reframed, it features new subflooring, doors, windows, siding, roof, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and Bluetooth-enabled garage doors--providing a solid foundation for your finishing touch w/ potential for additional living space and bedroom/bath in basement which is prepped for egress install. The spacious 60 x 40 pole barn includes an oversized RV door, perfect for hobbyists, storage, or a workshop. Step outside to your private lot with an inground pool, ideal for summer entertaining. Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings while still being close to shopping, dining, and amenities. A rare chance to customize and create value in a prime location--don't miss it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $63
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brandywine Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2606600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,075
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7059
• State rank: #342 of 540 in MI

Livability — Niles

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #6422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,148
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.26%
• Current HPI: 195.8214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $135,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $145,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-14 Listed $150,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,806 · +93.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.