2509 Juneau Ave · Lubbock, TX 79407

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 7,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home in Frenship School District now offered at just 185,000! Additional Flex Room. Remodeled kitchen including countertops, backsplash, stainless steel appiances, faucet and paint. Fresh paint inside and out. Brand new fascia and trim. New Vinyl Plank Flooring. Both bathrooms completed redone. New window blinds throughout. Too many items to list. Circle Driveway. Hurry before this one shows up as pending!

Key facts

• Updated brick home
• Remodeled kitchen
• Circle driveway

Tags

• UPDATED BRICK HOME
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity (standard)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Private yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Gas range; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($19/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westwind El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Heritage Middle (math 47% / reading 59%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 766 students, 42% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,097 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-34,724
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-48,830
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,255/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $54	+0% $2	+5% $-51	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-64	+0% $2	+5% $68	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $49	base $2	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1795	$1,799	$1.00	23d	1	0.20mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,650	$0.92	45d	1	0.20mi
6040 24th St Unit 16 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,699	$1.06	15d	1	0.20mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	23d	1	0.20mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	0.20mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,729	$1.02	23d	1	0.23mi
6040 24th St Unit 33 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,600	$0.89	23d	1	0.23mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,729	$1.02	45d	1	0.23mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	45d	1	0.23mi
6306 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,200	$0.91	45d	1	0.23mi
6333 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,350	$1.28	15d	1	0.40mi
6110 36th St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1636	$1,100	$0.67	23d	1	0.66mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.69mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	0.94mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.97mi
5724 36th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,600	$0.94	45d	1	0.99mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	1.02mi
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	23d	1	1.10mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	23d	1	1.11mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	45d	1	1.11mi
3705 Elkhart Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	1.16mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	45d	1	1.16mi
2625 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	45d	1	1.22mi
6111 10th Dr Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$1,649	$0.86	23d	1	1.22mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	15d	1	1.22mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	1.23mi
5518 16th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,700	$1.04	15d	1	1.23mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	15d	1	1.24mi
2612 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	15d	1	1.24mi
1409 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,800	$1.80	23d	1	1.25mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	1.25mi
5604 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,400	$0.97	23d	1	1.25mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	15d	1	1.25mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	15d	1	1.26mi
2801 Trenton Ave Unit LO Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,799	$1.04	23d	1	1.27mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	45d	1	1.27mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	45d	1	1.27mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	45d	1	1.28mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	45d	1	1.29mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $185,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $185,000 Active
14. 2003-06-17
    soldstatus
15. 1997-03-01
    soldstatus
16. 1984-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,255 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,255
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$739
• After-tax cash flow: $758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2003-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,255 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.