Palmyra Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$281,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,151 sqft · SingleFamily · 488 Days on market

Excellent condition $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our Palmyra floor plan is a favorite among homebuyers! This 4-bedroom, 2 ½-bath home features a foyer entry leading to a flex space or an optional 5th bedroom with a full bath. The spacious family room flows into the breakfast area. The U-shaped kitchen boasts an island, stylish cabinets, carefully chosen countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Upstairs, the master suite is a highlight with two walk-in closets, a dual vanity, a garden tub, a separate shower, and abundant natural light in the bedroom. The three additional bedrooms share a 3-piece hall bath. Artistic renderings are for reference only, and actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• U-shaped kitchen
• Stylish cabinets
• Flex space

Tags

• FOYER ENTRY
• FLEX SPACE
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• STYLISH CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $281,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,485.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($493/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Allenhurst — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,601/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $445 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 488 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,072 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 488 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,485
• List price: $281,900
• Delta: -1.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
549 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-4%)	2mo	$296,975	$144	67
802 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-4%)	3mo	$296,375	$144	66
916 Buckhead Loop SE	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-4%)	6mo	$306,210	$148	66
874 Buckhead Loop SE	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+5%)	5mo	$320,675	$142	58
631 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-8%)	4mo	$315,475	$159	57
836 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,395 (+11%)	3mo	$316,800	$132	54
439 Buckhead Loop SE	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,926 (-10%)	3mo	$310,025	$161	53
147 Antler Avenue Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,395 (+11%)	2mo	$324,900	$136	53
200 Antler Ave SE	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+5%)	7mo	$308,875	$137	50
218 Antler Ave	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-8%)	9mo	$296,450	$149	48
702 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,415 (+12%)	4mo	$322,425	$134	45
3597 SE Arnall Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,835 (-15%)	4mo	$255,000	$139	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,603
• Equity at exit: $85,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $40,449
• Equity at exit: $104,477

Cash invested: $80,216 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,900 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 163 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,297/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,549

Max offer price $286,485

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $140	+0% $41	+5% $-58	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-62	+0% $41	+5% $144	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $114	base $41	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,621
• Closing costs: $8,595
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2722 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.0	2256	$2,600	$1.15	139d	1	0.34mi
9635 Tibet Hwy SE Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	139d	1	1.26mi
28 Murray Crossing Blvd NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.5	2670	$2,350	$0.88	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $281,900 Active 488 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $281,900 Active 487 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $281,900 Active 485 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $281,900 Active 484 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $281,900 Active 483 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $281,900 Active 482 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $281,900 Active 481 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $281,900 Active 480 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $281,900 Active 479 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $281,900 Active 478 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $281,900 Active 477 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $281,900 Active 476 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $281,900 Active 470 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $281,900 Active 469 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $281,900 Active 468 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $281,900 Active 467 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $281,900 Active 464 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $281,900 Active 463 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $281,900 Active 462 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $281,900 Active 461 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $281,900 Active 460 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $281,900 Active 459 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $281,900 Active 458 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $281,900 Active 457 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $281,900 Active 456 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $281,900 Active 455 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $281,900 Active 454 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $281,900 Active 453 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $281,900 Active 452 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $281,900 Active 451 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $281,900 Active 450 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $281,900 Active 449 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $281,900 Active 448 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $281,900 Active 447 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $281,900 Active 446 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $281,900 Active 445 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $281,900 Active 444 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $281,900 Active 443 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $281,900 Active 442 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $281,900 Active 441 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $281,900 Active 440 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $281,900 Active 439 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $281,900 Active 438 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $281,900 Active 437 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $281,900 Active 434 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $281,900 Active 433 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $281,900 Active 432 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $281,900 Active 430 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $281,900 Active 428 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $281,900 Active 427 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,048
• − Property taxes: −$4,297
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,334
• Taxable loss: −$4,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $1,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Palmyra floor plan is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the spacious layout and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $281,900 Zillow