12521 Merry Ln · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1973 3,530 sqft lot Est $221k · 42% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Needs TLC. House was cleaned out. Property is being sold as is. Age of big ticket items unknown. * * * This is a limited-service listing - Please see realtor remarks for showing instructions. * * *

Key facts

• 3,530 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Total rooms: 3; Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Tax information available (details not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Beacon Woods Civic Association); HOA required; $360 annually ($30/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces southeast; Property condition: Fixer; Zoned PUD
• Construction: Block construction; Roof: Other; Foundation: Other; Building area (total) approximately 2010 square feet; Living area approximately 1464 square feet; Built on a 0.08 acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features (details not specified)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other (specific appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring (details not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Other interior features (details not specified)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features listed as other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $129k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12711 Shell Point Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	0mo	$92,500	$63	87
12701 Shell Point Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (0%)	4mo	$218,000	$149	80
7212 Dipaola Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,496 (+2%)	6mo	$204,000	$136	78
7519 Clanton Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	2mo	$249,000	$170	76
12412 Rodeo Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	2mo	$216,000	$164	75
12302 Quail Run Row	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+4%)	0mo	$160,000	$105	74
7401 Country Club Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,350 (-8%)	1mo	$165,000	$122	68
7559 Mediterranean Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$149	67
12813 Vassar Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-12%)	6mo	$261,000	$203	59
12700 2nd Isle	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,444 (-1%)	6mo	$325,000	$225	59
12913 1st Isle	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+5%)	3mo	$425,000	$276	55
7106 Jeanne Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-11%)	6mo	$196,000	$151	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,397
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $18,277
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,204/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.13mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	5d	1	0.19mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.34mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	5d	1	0.34mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.36mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.36mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.55mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.55mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.58mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	17d	1	0.61mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.75mi
7216 Gulf Breeze Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,781	$1.17	5d	1	0.78mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	24d	1	0.79mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	0.92mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.94mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.94mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.95mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	23d	1	0.96mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	0.98mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	1.00mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	1.01mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	1.02mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	1.04mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	1.04mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	1.05mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	1.05mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	1.05mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	1.06mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.08mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	1.08mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.09mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	5d	1	1.11mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.16mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.16mi
13428 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,450	$1.95	24d	1	1.18mi
13847 Maria Dr Hudson beach34674, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$3,000	$2.07	24d	1	1.18mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.18mi
13240 Starfish Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	24d	1	1.22mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	23d	1	1.25mi
6623 Boatyard Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	17d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-16
   remarks 241-char remark
2. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $129,000 Pending 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 201-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $129,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$3,204
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$879
• After-tax cash flow: $4,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+87.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,204 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.