2842 Springdell Cir · Valrico, FL 33596

$425,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1976 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This delightful 4 bedroom, Pool home, on over 1/3 acre, is warm and inviting. Not only is this spacious Valrico, classic beauty, appealing to the eye; but also to the heart, with the expression of home. It is located in a lovely neighborhood of stately, custom built homes, on large lots. This home features a large family room with a wood burning fireplace, very large and bright kitchen, separate formal living and dining rooms, bright and cheerful Florida room/Library, real hard wood floors, central vacuum system, oversized garage with lots of storage plus 2 car carport, crown molding, spacious bedrooms and has had the love and care that it deserves. It is situated on a large corner, conservation lot. The back yard is fully fenced with beautiful landscaping and reflecting areas. The large pool has a nice private southern exposure. There is NO HOA, No CDD, No Flood insurance required. It is on a private well and private septic, so NO water or sewer bills. This is the place you will always look forward to coming home to at the end of the day.

Key facts

• Florida room
• Lush landscaping
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FLORIDA ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGER
• CENTRAL VACUUM SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $425k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,755 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-50,150
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-8,031
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33596

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,878/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,454

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $352	+0% $232	+5% $111	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $84	+0% $232	+5% $380	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $340	base $232	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2815 Durant Trails Blvd Dover, FL	4.0	4.0	3458	$4,390	$1.27	24d	1	0.72mi
4351 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	3.0	2448	$2,695	$1.10	3d	1	0.79mi
4434 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,581	$1.29	5d	1	0.82mi
3415 Ranch Rd Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	3113	$4,425	$1.42	5d	1	0.86mi
2631 Queen Alberta Dr Valrico, FL	6.0	3.0	2999	$3,290	$1.10	5d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $425,000
3. 2026-03-20
   price $450,000
4. 2026-02-27
   price $455,000
5. 2026-02-10
   listed $465,000 Active
6. 2014-05-21
   soldstatus $235,000
7. 2014-05-16
   historical 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   This delightful 4 bedroom, Pool home, on over 1/3 acre, is warm and inviting. Not only is this spacious Valrico, classic beauty, appealing to the eye; but also to the heart, with the expression of home. It is located in a lovely neighborhood of stately, custom built homes, on large lots. This home features a large family room with a wood burning fireplace, very large and bright kitchen, separate formal living and dining rooms, bright and cheerful Florida room/Library, real hard wood floors, central vacuum system, oversized garage with lots of storage plus 2 car carport, crown molding, spacious bedrooms and has had the love and care that it deserves. It is situated on a large corner, conservation lot. The back yard is fully fenced with beautiful landscaping and reflecting areas. The large pool has a nice private southern exposure. There is NO HOA, No CDD, No Flood insurance required. It is on a private well and private septic, so NO water or sewer bills. This is the place you will always look forward to coming home to at the end of the day.

8. 2014-05-16
   soldstatus $235,000 Sold 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   This delightful 4 bedroom, Pool home, on over 1/3 acre, is warm and inviting. Not only is this spacious Valrico, classic beauty, appealing to the eye; but also to the heart, with the expression of home. It is located in a lovely neighborhood of stately, custom built homes, on large lots. This home features a large family room with a wood burning fireplace, very large and bright kitchen, separate formal living and dining rooms, bright and cheerful Florida room/Library, real hard wood floors, central vacuum system, oversized garage with lots of storage plus 2 car carport, crown molding, spacious bedrooms and has had the love and care that it deserves. It is situated on a large corner, conservation lot. The back yard is fully fenced with beautiful landscaping and reflecting areas. The large pool has a nice private southern exposure. There is NO HOA, No CDD, No Flood insurance required. It is on a private well and private septic, so NO water or sewer bills. This is the place you will always look forward to coming home to at the end of the day.

9. 2014-04-10
   status Pending 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   This delightful 4 bedroom, Pool home, on over 1/3 acre, is warm and inviting. Not only is this spacious Valrico, classic beauty, appealing to the eye; but also to the heart, with the expression of home. It is located in a lovely neighborhood of stately, custom built homes, on large lots. This home features a large family room with a wood burning fireplace, very large and bright kitchen, separate formal living and dining rooms, bright and cheerful Florida room/Library, real hard wood floors, central vacuum system, oversized garage with lots of storage plus 2 car carport, crown molding, spacious bedrooms and has had the love and care that it deserves. It is situated on a large corner, conservation lot. The back yard is fully fenced with beautiful landscaping and reflecting areas. The large pool has a nice private southern exposure. There is NO HOA, No CDD, No Flood insurance required. It is on a private well and private septic, so NO water or sewer bills. This is the place you will always look forward to coming home to at the end of the day.

10. 2014-03-21
    listed $235,000 Active 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    This delightful 4 bedroom, Pool home, on over 1/3 acre, is warm and inviting. Not only is this spacious Valrico, classic beauty, appealing to the eye; but also to the heart, with the expression of home. It is located in a lovely neighborhood of stately, custom built homes, on large lots. This home features a large family room with a wood burning fireplace, very large and bright kitchen, separate formal living and dining rooms, bright and cheerful Florida room/Library, real hard wood floors, central vacuum system, oversized garage with lots of storage plus 2 car carport, crown molding, spacious bedrooms and has had the love and care that it deserves. It is situated on a large corner, conservation lot. The back yard is fully fenced with beautiful landscaping and reflecting areas. The large pool has a nice private southern exposure. There is NO HOA, No CDD, No Flood insurance required. It is on a private well and private septic, so NO water or sewer bills. This is the place you will always look forward to coming home to at the end of the day.

11. 2007-10-30
    listed $309,900
12. 2007-10-29
    historical
13. 2007-06-14
    listed $309,900
14. 2005-04-20
    soldstatus $279,900
15. 2005-04-07
    soldstatus $279,900
16. 2005-01-22
    listed $289,900
17. 2004-03-09
    soldstatus $228,000
18. 1979-04-01
    soldstatus $82,500
19. 1978-05-01
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,878 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,878 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,878
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,598
• − Management: −$3,598
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $3,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.33%
• Current HPI: 301.312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+596.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $455,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-21 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-30 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-14 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $279,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-07 Sold (MLS) $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-22 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1978-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,878 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.