Falcon Plan · Austin, TX 78747

$371,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,323 sqft · SingleFamily · 470 Days on market

↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 470 days

🏗️ New construction. The $371,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $479,462.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $372k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,590 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.43%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $479,462
• List price: $371,990
• Delta: -22.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4509 Beacon Bay Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,323 (0%)	4mo	$399,990	$172	87
20117 Aqua Reef Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,255 (-3%)	4mo	$439,990	$195	81
4508 Bridal Veil Dr	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,543 (+10%)	0mo	$419,990	$165	66
12012 Dillon Falls Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,041 (-12%)	4mo	$374,990	$184	66
4916 Sea Salt Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-12%)	4mo	$369,990	$181	65
4504 Beacon Bay Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-12%)	3mo	$377,990	$185	64
4609 Lava Island Dr	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,543 (+10%)	1mo	$414,990	$163	63
4513 Lava Island Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,543 (+10%)	1mo	$424,990	$167	63
4501 Lava Island Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,543 (+10%)	2mo	$442,990	$174	61
12108 Dillon Falls Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-12%)	4mo	$375,990	$184	60
12300 Dillon Falls Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-12%)	3mo	$377,990	$185	58
10923 Preston Trails Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,438 (+5%)	1mo	$599,900	$246	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-166,631
• Equity at exit: $71,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-278,967
• Equity at exit: $41,455

Cash invested: $134,249 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78747

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$599 /mo · $7,192/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-1,278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,194

Max offer price $294,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-947	-5% $-1,113	+0% $-1,278	+5% $-1,444	+10% $-1,610
Rent	-10% $-1,482	-5% $-1,380	+0% $-1,278	+5% $-1,177	+10% $-1,075
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,037	-0.5pp $-1,157	base $-1,278	+0.5pp $-1,403	+1.0pp $-1,529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,866
• Closing costs: $14,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4708 Sea Salt Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2279	$2,800	$1.23	44d	1	0.02mi
4700 Sea Salt Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	2429	$2,600	$1.07	24d	1	0.05mi
11802 Hurricane Haze Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2146	$2,845	$1.33	21d	1	0.07mi
4505 Cool Gray Cv Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2435	$2,595	$1.07	3d	1	0.11mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	18d	1	0.18mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	18d	1	0.56mi
11313 County Down Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2334	$2,900	$1.24	15d	1	0.65mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1150	$2,177	$1.89	2d	31	0.73mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	44d	1	0.75mi
11628 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	2637	$2,695	$1.02	5d	1	0.76mi
11121 Mickelson Dr Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2656	$2,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.82mi
607 Allende Bnd Austin, TX	5.0	3.5	3327	$3,795	$1.14	2d	1	1.09mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	44d	1	1.12mi
11410 Old San Antonio Rd Manchaca, TX	3.0	3.0	1503	$2,359	$1.57	3d	10	1.24mi
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	44d	1	1.26mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	18d	1	1.27mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	24d	1	1.27mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	5d	1	1.27mi
5701 Southerner Way Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2488	$2,399	$0.96	5d	1	1.30mi
5716 Southerner Way Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,100	$1.32	22d	1	1.34mi
10724 Steinbeck Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1641	$2,190	$1.33	5d	1	1.36mi
10412 Premier Park St Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	2340	$2,450	$1.05	18d	1	1.37mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	15d	1	1.37mi
6501 Dragride Rd Buda, TX	5.0	3.0	2585	$2,595	$1.00	17d	1	1.37mi
10215 River Plantation Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,550	$0.94	18d	1	1.37mi
12603 Purple Prairie Ln Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	2691	$2,995	$1.11	5d	1	1.43mi
6201 Pine Leaf Trl Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2381	$2,750	$1.15	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $371,990 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $371,990 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $371,990 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $371,990 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,990 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $371,990 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $371,990 Active 460 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $371,990 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $371,990 Active 456 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $371,990 Active 455 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $371,990 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $371,990 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $371,990 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-02-21
    price $371,990 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

15. 2026-02-04
    price $370,990 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

16. 2026-01-27
    price $369,990 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

17. 2025-12-04
    price $368,990 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

18. 2025-04-12
    price $413,990 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

19. 2025-03-06
    listed $411,990 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Falcon floorplan offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern design across 2 floors and 2,323 square feet. This home from our Smart Series features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing everything you need for contemporary living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,857
• − Property taxes: −$7,192
• − Insurance: −$2,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − Depreciation: −$13,948
• Taxable loss: −$24,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,863
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,180
• Household income: $92,748
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 34% Two or more races 20% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.69%
• Current HPI: 192.9499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $371,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $370,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $368,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $413,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $411,990 Zillow