8257 Salish Ln · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$409,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 9,900 sqft lot $375/sqft · 20% below area Est $510k · 20% under $258/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adorable home is fully move in ready. Recent updates include brand new solid wood kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops and all new appliances including washer and dryer. Bonus room offers space to have an office or use as a 3rd bedroom. Freshly installed luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout for a great look with low maintenance. Brand new double pane vinyl windows for comfort and efficiency. Has a fully fenced in yard with Cedar deck. This is one of the few homes with beautiful old growth trees and privacy. No need to compromise style, this home is adorable and truly move in ready. Don't miss out on your chance to own the most affordable stick-built home in the village.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Bonus room
• New appliances

Tags

• SOLID WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BONUS ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Buyer brokerage compensation: 2.5%
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: HOA: Birch Bay Village; Monthly association fee: $258.25 (includes common area maintenance, road maintenance, security); Community features: boat launch, CCRs, clubhouse, gated community, golf, park, playground, trails; Community waterfront / private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space)
• Security: Security gate; Security service; Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water (Birch Bay); Sewer connected (Birch Bay); Electric and natural gas service (PSA power); Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Single-family house, one story; South-facing; Built on lot; Has view; Good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation; Effective year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Gated entry; Paved site

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Main level bathrooms: 2 total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Free‑standing stove; Wall furnace; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Water heater (gas, located in closet); Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (47.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,362 (47.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.55%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,523
• List price: $409,000
• Delta: -19.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8257 Salish Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$424,000	$388	97
8162 Skagit Way	0.26mi	2/1.5	1,074 (-2%)	14mo	$510,000	$475	74
8224 Quinault Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+6%)	4mo	$450,000	$388	72
5621 W Shoreview	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+3%)	13mo	$435,000	$386	60
8235 Sehome Rd	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	18mo	$620,000	$538	53
5786 Skagit Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+15%)	12mo	$503,000	$401	50
5537 Salish Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,195 (+9%)	1mo	$515,000	$431	50
8175 Skeena Way	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+13%)	14mo	$520,000	$420	48
8039 Niska Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+12%)	3mo	$507,000	$415	44
5521 Hillvue Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	19mo	$480,000	$476	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $152,816
• Equity at exit: $368,460

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $505,686
• Equity at exit: $794,597

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,804/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-1,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,553

Max offer price $214,362

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-870	-5% $-986	+0% $-1,102	+5% $-1,218	+10% $-1,333
Rent	-10% $-1,272	-5% $-1,187	+0% $-1,102	+5% $-1,017	+10% $-931
Rate	-1.0pp $-896	-0.5pp $-998	base $-1,102	+0.5pp $-1,208	+1.0pp $-1,316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,250
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $258 · $3,096/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $409,000
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $415,000 Active
4. 2025-10-01
   soldstatus $355,312
5. 2021-03-03
   soldstatus $302,500 Sold
6. 2021-01-26
   status Pending
7. 2021-01-12
   status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
8. 2020-11-04
   listed $315,000 Active
9. 2003-06-12
   soldstatus $125,000
10. 1984-08-09
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,204/yr (+$100/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$2,804
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable loss: −$20,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+757.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $424,312 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $424,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $409,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $415,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $355,312 Public Records
• 2021-03-03 Sold (MLS) $302,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-04 Listed $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1984-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,804 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.