86616 Mainline Rd · Yulee, FL 32097

$233,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 1,306 sqft lot Est $306k · 24% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

Key facts

• $50 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Attached property
• Exterior features: Small yard on a 0.03-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($319/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,461 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,360
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86848 Mainline Rd	0.10mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	0mo	$239,000	$205	70
86293 Mainline Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-8%)	14mo	$307,500	$252	65
86071 Spring Meadow Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-1%)	13mo	$305,000	$230	58
86114 Railway Pl	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+11%)	18mo	$325,000	$220	50
86112 Spring Meadow Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	22mo	$344,999	$276	42
86221 Spring Meadow Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-13%)	14mo	$350,000	$303	42
85930 N Harts Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,164 (-13%)	2mo	$311,000	$267	41
86027 Venetian Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	16mo	$283,000	$236	39
86023 Cardinal Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-8%)	21mo	$275,000	$223	32
86040 Venetian Ave	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,492 (+12%)	23mo	$337,000	$226	30
86175 Venetian Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+15%)	17mo	$335,000	$219	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $128,676
• Equity at exit: $210,355

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $377,211
• Equity at exit: $453,639

Cash invested: $65,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,224
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $233,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,375
• Closing costs: $7,005
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
86624 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,695	$1.45	23d	1	0.03mi
86229 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,195	$1.80	23d	1	0.22mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	20d	1	0.34mi
86147 Callaway Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	2d	1	0.75mi
78295 Saddle Rock Rd Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,191	$1.19	23d	1	0.89mi
77822 Lumber Creek Blvd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,200	$1.43	23d	1	1.10mi
75530 Harvester St Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,895	$1.62	4d	1	1.22mi
86114 Harry Green Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,600	$1.38	17d	1	1.45mi
86114 Harry Green Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	986	$1,650	$1.67	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $233,500 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,500 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $233,500 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $233,500 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $233,500 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $233,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $233,500 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-04-13
   listed $233,500 Active
9. 2021-08-30
   soldstatus $223,990 Sold 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

10. 2021-08-30
    soldstatus $223,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

11. 2021-05-10
    status Pending 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

12. 2021-05-04
    price $223,990 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

13. 2021-04-28
    price $220,990 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

14. 2021-04-15
    price $218,990 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

15. 2021-03-26
    listed $217,990 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

16. 2021-03-26
    listed $223,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,080
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,793
• Taxable loss: −$3,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This townhome requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathrooms, along with some maintenance and landscaping improvements to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and damaged, requiring replacement or repair.
• Major Bathroom cabinets — Damaged and missing hardware, requiring full replacement.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Damaged and missing, requiring full replacement.
• Minor Carpet — Clean but may need cleaning or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and touch-ups — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and damaged, requiring replacement or repair.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom cabinets · Damaged and missing hardware, requiring full replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Damaged and missing, requiring full replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Carpet · Clean but may need cleaning or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$33,500–118,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting and touch-ups — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $233,500 realMLS
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) $223,990 AINCAR
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) $223,990 realMLS
• 2021-05-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-05-04 Price Changed $223,990 realMLS
• 2021-04-28 Price Changed $220,990 realMLS
• 2021-04-15 Price Changed $218,990 realMLS
• 2021-03-26 Listed $223,990 AINCAR
• 2021-03-26 Listed $217,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+74.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,645 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.