🏷️ Likely Rental
396 N Wall St · Coos Bay, OR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $498 – $926
Heat risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 74°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 9 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.8/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.6/10.0
- Rent growth +4.7/5.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$135,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Seller is selling property with occupant. Please do not disturb the tenant. Fixer! Bring your tools and ideas!
Key facts
- Garage
- Built 1940
- Listed 68 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
- Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.2% in Coos Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#257 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
- Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $105k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.26% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.71%
- Cash-on-cash
- 15.77%
- DSCR
- 1.70
- GRM
- 6.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $229,236
- List price
- $135,000
- Delta
- -41.11%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 370 N Wall St | 0.02mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,100 (+7%) | 4mo | $340,000 | $309 | 79 |
| 298 N Wasson St | 0.12mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 960 (-6%) | 3mo | $333,400 | $347 | 76 |
| 381 N Empire Blvd | 0.08mi | 2/1.0 | 880 (-14%) | 12mo | $106,000 | $120 | 63 |
| 426 Ackerman Ave | 0.40mi | 2/1.0 | 912 (-11%) | 2mo | $240,000 | $263 | 61 |
| 565 N Cammann St | 0.22mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,140 (+11%) | 14mo | $305,000 | $268 | 54 |
| 856 Pacific Ave | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,032 (+1%) | 9mo | $249,999 | $242 | 53 |
| 1030 Augustine Ave | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,024 (-0%) | 12mo | $281,000 | $274 | 52 |
| 1025 Garfield Ave | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 960 (-6%) | 0mo | $299,000 | $311 | 51 |
| 935 Fenwick | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,036 (+1%) | 12mo | $259,000 | $250 | 51 |
| 1163 Michigan Ave | 0.53mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,107 (+8%) | 10mo | $275,750 | $249 | 49 |
| 980 Augustine Ave | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,056 (+3%) | 9mo | $324,900 | $308 | 47 |
| 856 Augustine Ave | 0.59mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,176 (+15%) | 3mo | $225,000 | $191 | 41 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 11.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.50×
- Total profit
- $18,736
- Equity at exit
- $20,129
- IRR
- 24.3%
- Equity multiple
- 3.59×
- Total profit
- $97,923
- Equity at exit
- $11,672
Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Oregon
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 97420
- Rents YoY
- 8.7%
- Active inventory
- 342
- Price-to-rent
- 6.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,704 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$708
- Tax from tax record
- −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
- Insurance
- −$56
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$358
- Net cashflow
- $497
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $573 | -5% $535 | +0% $497 | +5% $458 | +10% $420 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $362 | -5% $429 | +0% $497 | +5% $564 | +10% $631 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $565 | -0.5pp $531 | base $497 | +0.5pp $462 | +1.0pp $426 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $33,750
- Closing costs
- $4,050
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 239 N Wasson St Unit 7 Coos Bay, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,400 | $1.56 | 44d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 455 N Cammann St Coos Bay, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1060 | $2,000 | $1.89 | 44d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 267 Ackerman Ave Unit 277 Coos Bay, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 904 | $1,550 | $1.71 | 44d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 151 Norman Ave Unit 02 Coos Bay, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,300 | $1.30 | 44d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 949 Blanco Ave Coos Bay, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $2,500 | $2.27 | 44d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 212 Laclair St Coos Bay, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,400 | $1.62 | 44d | 1 | 0.89mi |
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-05-06status Pending 110-char remark
Show marketing remark (110 chars)
Seller is selling property with occupant. Please do not disturb the tenant. Fixer! Bring your tools and ideas!
-
2026-02-26$135,000 Active 110-char remark
Show marketing remark (110 chars)
Seller is selling property with occupant. Please do not disturb the tenant. Fixer! Bring your tools and ideas!
-
2009-05-19soldstatus $104,808
-
2009-05-18soldstatus $104,808 216-char remark
Show marketing remark (216 chars)
COZY HOME. EASY TO HEAT AND VERY LIVABLE. EXTRA DEEP LOT, NICE DECK FOR ENTERTAINING. MORE STORAGE IN UNFINISHED BASEMENT AREA. NEW SEWER LINES PUT LAST YEAR. Clean Pest and Dryrot on file, ready for financing.
-
2009-03-27historical 216-char remark
Show marketing remark (216 chars)
COZY HOME. EASY TO HEAT AND VERY LIVABLE. EXTRA DEEP LOT, NICE DECK FOR ENTERTAINING. MORE STORAGE IN UNFINISHED BASEMENT AREA. NEW SEWER LINES PUT LAST YEAR. Clean Pest and Dryrot on file, ready for financing.
-
2008-08-29$110,808 216-char remark
Show marketing remark (216 chars)
COZY HOME. EASY TO HEAT AND VERY LIVABLE. EXTRA DEEP LOT, NICE DECK FOR ENTERTAINING. MORE STORAGE IN UNFINISHED BASEMENT AREA. NEW SEWER LINES PUT LAST YEAR. Clean Pest and Dryrot on file, ready for financing.
-
2003-12-19soldstatus $67,000
-
2003-12-19soldstatus $67,000
-
2003-11-25historical
-
2003-08-28$72,000
-
1999-08-30soldstatus $48,000
-
1993-12-01soldstatus $30,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,021 · $85/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,310 · $109/mo
- Expected delta
- +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 28.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥74°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,445
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,562
- − Property taxes
- −$1,021
- − Insurance
- −$675
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,636
- − Management
- −$1,636
- − Depreciation
- −$3,927
- Taxable income
- $3,988
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$957
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,003/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Coos Bay SD 9
- NCES district ID
- 4103660
- Math proficiency
- 22% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 39% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,630
- Composite
- 25.46/100
- National rank
- #7450
- State rank
- #45 of 58 in OR
Livability — Coos Bay
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #257
- US rank
- #17474
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Coos Bay, OR
- County
- Coos County · 27,621 people
- City population
- 27,621
- Metro
- Coos Bay, OR
- Population (ZIP)
- 27,621
- Household income
- $61,574
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 799.0
Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 62,222 people
- By 2030
- 61,120 · -1.8%
- By 2040
- 58,478 · -6.0%
- By 2050
- 56,819 · -8.7%
- By 2075
- 54,915 · -11.7%
- By 2100
- 51,403 · -17.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 6%
Political lean MEDSL · Coos
- 2024 margin
- R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -315.58%
- Current HPI
- 198.3249
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 8.65%
- Metro
- Coos Bay, OR
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $51B |
|
||
Price history
+350.0% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-06 Pending — RMLS
- 2026-02-26 Listed $135,000 RMLS
- 2009-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $104,808 Public Records
- 2009-05-18 Sold (MLS) $104,808 RMLS
- 2009-03-27 Delisted — RMLS
- 2008-08-29 Listed $110,808 RMLS
- 2003-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
- 2003-12-19 Sold (MLS) $67,000 RMLS
- 2003-11-25 Delisted — RMLS
- 2003-08-28 Listed $72,000 RMLS
- 1999-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
- 1993-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.7%/yrLatest (2025): $1,021 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…