799 Old Willow Ct NW · Wilton, MN 56601

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1999 1.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for an affordable home, come look at this well maintained 16x80 1998 mobile home on a beautifully wooded and elevated lot just west of Bemidji. This home features: newer furnace, air conditioning, flooring, and roof and is very clean and ready to move in to. It also features a newer 2 car garage! If tie downs are needed for Buyer's financing, Seller is willing to have them installed with that cost being added on to the sales price.

Key facts

• Air conditioning
• Newer 2 car garage
• Newer furnace

Tags

• NEWER FURNACE
• AIR CONDITIONING
• NEWER 2 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.24 acres (dimensions 160 x 330)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: 4-inch submersible water; Private sewer with tank and drainage field; Propane fuel; Circuit breaker electric; served by Beltrami Electric Cooperative
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: 1,216 sq. ft. above-grade living area; 1,216 sq. ft. foundation area
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck; Medium tree coverage; Road frontage on township and unpaved streets; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including a full primary bath and a main floor full bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#703 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Bemidji Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 301 in MN (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 165 units permitted in Beltrami County in 2024 (81 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $170k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,035 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,914
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,351
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56601

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4961 Zinnia Ln NW Bemidji, MN	2.0	1.0	787	$1,300	$1.65	44d	1	1.23mi
4953 Zinnia Ln NW Bemidji, MN	2.0	1.0	787	$1,300	$1.65	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $169,900 Active
17. 2020-03-05
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemidji Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2704440
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,735
• Composite: 39.22/100
• National rank: #4013
• State rank: #173 of 301 in MN

Livability — Wilton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #16937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Beltrami County · 34,784 people
• Metro: Bemidji, MN
• Population (ZIP): 34,784
• Household income: $72,262
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 940.0

Population outlook (Beltrami County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,437 people
• By 2030: 46,736 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 46,804 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 46,299 · -0.3%
• By 2075: 44,037 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 38,567 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 19% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Beltrami

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.3% · R 52.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.1 2016: R+9.8 2012: D+9.9 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.95%
• Current HPI: 261.5734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.02%
• Metro: Bemidji, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+142.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $892 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.