138 1st Ave · Watertown, SD 57201

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1889 0.76 ac lot Est $188k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Heated shop
• Fenced yard
• New steel roof

Tags

• HEATED SHOP
• FENCED OUTDOOR STORAGE
• FENCED YARD
• NEW STEEL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.76 acres (about 200 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#11 in SD, #2,681 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Watertown School District 14-4 (town): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #28 of 59 in SD (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Codington County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Codington County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,959 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 1st St SW	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,760 (+3%)	3mo	$267,800	$152	75
161 6th St NE	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (-1%)	0mo	$257,500	$152	73
327 N Broadway St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,560 (-9%)	2mo	$189,900	$122	69
320 2nd St NE	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,544 (-10%)	3mo	$245,000	$159	66
305 3rd Ave NE	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-4%)	4mo	$175,000	$107	66
8 6th Ave SE	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,786 (+5%)	4mo	$173,000	$97	62
605 1st Ave NE	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-4%)	6mo	$180,000	$110	61
606 S Maple --	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,731 (+1%)	6mo	$160,000	$92	60
508 4th St NE	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+7%)	4mo	$170,000	$93	52
514 4th Ave SE	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,915 (+12%)	5mo	$150,000	$78	46
519 6th Ave NE	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,495 (-12%)	4mo	$167,000	$112	43
509 5th St SE	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,956 (+14%)	6mo	$180,500	$92	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,575
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,903
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57201

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,577/yr (+$131/mo · 406.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $3,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown School District 14-4
• NCES district ID: 4676620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3057
• State rank: #28 of 59 in SD

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #2681

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, SD
• County: Codington County · 26,781 people
• City population: 26,781
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $72,878
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 613.0

Population outlook (Codington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,752 people
• By 2030: 30,627 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 32,285 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 33,812 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 39,184 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 46,673 · +56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Codington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 28.4% · R 69.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.4pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+6.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 165.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $150,000 NESD

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $388 · -43.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.