31227 Carmelas Landing Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$284,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY. Discover The Gaven at Tamarron, offering 1,778 sq. ft. in the vibrant city of Fulshear. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this layout combines modern comfort with a timeless style. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island that seamlessly connects to the dining and family rooms. Expansive windows fill the main living areas with natural light and offer a picturesque view of the covered back patio and fenced backyard. The primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat with a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower (optional separate tub and shower). Each secondary bedroom features plush carpeting and spacious closet, ensuring comfort for family and guests. Enjoy Tamarron’s resort-style pool, splash pad, fitness center, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Ample counter space
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• CENTRALLY LOCATED FAMILY ROOM
• PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Is new construction
• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction by D.R. Horton; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Facing/entry level not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, stone and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fence; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Programmable thermostat; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Prewired security; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,592.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,986 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,592
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -24.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-106,949
• Equity at exit: $56,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-170,560
• Equity at exit: $32,820

Cash invested: $106,286 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,991
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,890/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,267

Max offer price $273,931

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-383	-5% $-491	+0% $-598	+5% $-706	+10% $-813
Rent	-10% $-796	-5% $-697	+0% $-598	+5% $-499	+10% $-400
Rate	-1.0pp $-407	-0.5pp $-502	base $-598	+0.5pp $-696	+1.0pp $-797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,898
• Closing costs: $11,388
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6030 Texas Heritage Pkwy Fulshear, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1166	$2,745	$2.35	2d	44	0.37mi
5506 Amber Brook Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,350	$1.24	44d	1	0.39mi
693 Canvas Ave Fulshear, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1199	$2,316	$1.93	2d	38	0.97mi
6636 Argonne Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1254	$2,394	$1.91	2d	66	1.06mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	44d	1	1.35mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,132	$1.27	2d	17	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,990 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,990 Active 4 DOM

   Show marketing remark (968 chars)

   MOVE IN READY. Discover The Gaven at Tamarron, offering 1,778 sq. ft. in the vibrant city of Fulshear. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this layout combines modern comfort with a timeless style. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island that seamlessly connects to the dining and family rooms. Expansive windows fill the main living areas with natural light and offer a picturesque view of the covered back patio and fenced backyard. The primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat with a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower (optional separate tub and shower). Each secondary bedroom features plush carpeting and spacious closet, ensuring comfort for family and guests. Enjoy Tamarron’s resort-style pool, splash pad, fitness center, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools.

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,990 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $284,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $314,990 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,990 Active 16 DOM

   Show marketing remark (968 chars)

   MOVE IN READY. Discover The Gaven at Tamarron, offering 1,778 sq. ft. in the vibrant city of Fulshear. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this layout combines modern comfort with a timeless style. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island that seamlessly connects to the dining and family rooms. Expansive windows fill the main living areas with natural light and offer a picturesque view of the covered back patio and fenced backyard. The primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat with a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower (optional separate tub and shower). Each secondary bedroom features plush carpeting and spacious closet, ensuring comfort for family and guests. Enjoy Tamarron’s resort-style pool, splash pad, fitness center, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools.

8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,990 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $314,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,990 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,990 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,990 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    historical
15. 2026-04-29
    price $284,990
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $291,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,890 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,326/yr (+$110/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,263
• − Property taxes: −$3,890
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$11,043
• Taxable loss: −$14,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape and irrigation system improve curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape and irrigation system improve curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulshear, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $291,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+144.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,890 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.