14606 Edwards Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2003 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a meticulously loved home on one full acre. A boardwalk-style porch nearly 10 feet wide and 44 feet long will welcome you home and provide you with outdoor space to enjoy. With a family room that flows unobstructed into the dining room and kitchen, you will not miss a minute of conversation. Three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, plus an “extra room” accessible from the kitchen/breakfast area or the primary bedroom can serve any purpose from a nursery, craft room, office, massive pantry space, or whatever your heart desires! The one-acre of land has a circle driveway and several spots that would be perfect for a swing set, playground, garden, chicken coop, or a 4-H/FFA project. The home has a metal roof. The one-acre is mostly cleared and feels far from the hustle and bustle of the city while being near everything you need. Come see the beautiful slice of Montgomery and make it your home.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Extra room
• Outdoor space

Tags

• BOARDWALK STYLE PORCH
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• METAL ROOF
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EXTRA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,046
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,980
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,570/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2283 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	43d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $220,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    status Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome to a meticulously loved home on one full acre. A boardwalk-style porch nearly 10 feet wide and 44 feet long will welcome you home and provide you with outdoor space to enjoy. With a family room that flows unobstructed into the dining room and kitchen, you will not miss a minute of conversation. Three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, plus an “extra room” accessible from the kitchen/breakfast area or the primary bedroom can serve any purpose from a nursery, craft room, office, massive pantry space, or whatever your heart desires! The one-acre of land has a circle driveway and several spots that would be perfect for a swing set, playground, garden, chicken coop, or a 4-H/FFA project. The home has a metal roof. The one-acre is mostly cleared and feels far from the hustle and bustle of the city while being near everything you need. Come see the beautiful slice of Montgomery and make it your home.

15. 2026-05-02
    status Pending 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome to a meticulously loved home on one full acre. A boardwalk-style porch nearly 10 feet wide and 44 feet long will welcome you home and provide you with outdoor space to enjoy. With a family room that flows unobstructed into the dining room and kitchen, you will not miss a minute of conversation. Three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, plus an “extra room” accessible from the kitchen/breakfast area or the primary bedroom can serve any purpose from a nursery, craft room, office, massive pantry space, or whatever your heart desires! The one-acre of land has a circle driveway and several spots that would be perfect for a swing set, playground, garden, chicken coop, or a 4-H/FFA project. The home has a metal roof. The one-acre is mostly cleared and feels far from the hustle and bustle of the city while being near everything you need. Come see the beautiful slice of Montgomery and make it your home.

16. 2026-01-04
    listed $230,000 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome to a meticulously loved home on one full acre. A boardwalk-style porch nearly 10 feet wide and 44 feet long will welcome you home and provide you with outdoor space to enjoy. With a family room that flows unobstructed into the dining room and kitchen, you will not miss a minute of conversation. Three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, plus an “extra room” accessible from the kitchen/breakfast area or the primary bedroom can serve any purpose from a nursery, craft room, office, massive pantry space, or whatever your heart desires! The one-acre of land has a circle driveway and several spots that would be perfect for a swing set, playground, garden, chicken coop, or a 4-H/FFA project. The home has a metal roof. The one-acre is mostly cleared and feels far from the hustle and bustle of the city while being near everything you need. Come see the beautiful slice of Montgomery and make it your home.

17. 1999-04-23
    soldstatus
18. 1998-09-11
    soldstatus
19. 1998-09-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,456/yr (+$205/mo · 156.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,570
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $3,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 1999-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,570 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.