Leila III Plan · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$283,569

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,594 sqft · Townhouse · 55 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Leila III is a beautifully designed two-level townhome that features the alternate kitchen configuration as its standard layout, creating a spacious and functional main living area ideal for entertaining and everyday living. A single-car garage and open-concept design provide both comfort and convenience throughout the home. In the Leila III, the kitchen serves as the central focal point of the first floor and includes a large island along with additional cabinet storage for enhanced organization and workspace. The family room is located at the rear of the home, offering a comfortable setting that flows seamlessly to the standard lanai included at Twin Oaks for added outdoor living spac

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $283,569

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan home (Leila III)
• Exterior features: Address: 34549 Turpins Ave, Zephyrhills, FL 33541

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (1,594 sq ft listed separately); Plan: Leila III

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-89/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,471/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,123 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-53,627
• Equity at exit: $42,281

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-75,142
• Equity at exit: $24,518

Cash invested: $79,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,487
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,254/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $282,497

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $91	+0% $-7	+5% $-105	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-105	+0% $-7	+5% $90	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $65	base $-7	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,892
• Closing costs: $8,507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34338 Wynthorne Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2192	$3,200	$1.46	5d	1	0.33mi
34436 Moonflower Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2039	$2,600	$1.28	25d	1	0.40mi
7891 Stonebrook Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,250	$1.42	25d	1	0.43mi
6833 Runner Oak Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,400	$1.33	25d	1	0.47mi
33746 Astoria Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,495	$1.22	25d	1	0.50mi
7788 Stonebrook Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,400	$1.51	0d	1	0.52mi
7563 Ashcroft Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2082	$2,490	$1.20	13d	1	0.59mi
6601 Boulder Run Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,400	$1.14	6d	1	0.65mi
6601 Boulder Run Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,400	$1.14	0d	1	0.65mi
35255 Crescent Creek Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,497	$1.63	18d	1	0.93mi
34835 Redding Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	2d	1	0.95mi
34933 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,875	$1.33	15d	1	0.98mi
34885 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,029	$1.26	13d	1	1.02mi
35542 Sparrow Nest Way Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	25d	1	1.20mi
33529 Buttonweed Trl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,500	$1.77	25d	1	1.20mi
35138 Meadow Reach Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,500	$1.59	25d	1	1.22mi
6248 Hidden Creek Blvd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1803	$1,737	$0.96	0d	9	1.22mi
7139 Steer Blade Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,300	$1.12	11d	1	1.27mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	6d	1	1.33mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	5d	1	1.33mi
35747 Buttonweed Trl Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,500	$1.32	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,569 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,569 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,569 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,569 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,569 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,569 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,569 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,569 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,569 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,569 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,569 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,569 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,569 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,254
• − Insurance: −$1,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$8,249
• Taxable loss: −$4,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $1,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Leila III townhome is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a modern kitchen and well-maintained bathrooms. It has a good foundation and structure, and the exterior and landscaping add to its curb appeal. Upgrades in paint, flooring, and appliances can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more desirable and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more desirable and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B