15342 SW 38th Pl · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$222,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Limited-time incentive: Seller offering a $5,000 contribution toward the buyer’s closing costs with an accepted full-price offer. Country living at its finest! New home on an undeveloped road. Discover the charm of this new construction “Maplewood” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion by July 15th, 2026. Thoughtfully designed to blend affordability with everyday comfort, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking stylish, attainable homeownership. Inside, you’ll find 8’ ceilings in the bedrooms and vaulted ceilings in the main living areas, creating an open and inviting feel throughout. The kitchen is efficientl

Key facts

• Maplewood model
• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• MAPLEWOOD MODEL
• DURABLE FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is indicated as unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One level; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-07-15); North-facing
• Construction: New construction; Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Bakan Homes LLC (Model: Maplewood); Permit number 2025061233; Builder license: CRC; Built on approximately 0.23 acres (lot dimensions 75 x 135)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

🏗️ New construction. The $222,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $219,171.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($463/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 580 students, 61% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1161 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $223k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,614 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,171
• List price: $222,999
• Delta: 1.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,027
• Equity at exit: $32,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,472
• Equity at exit: $18,950

Cash invested: $61,368 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1161
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,149
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,288/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $219,171

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $114	+0% $39	+5% $-37	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-39	+0% $39	+5% $116	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $94	base $39	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,793
• Closing costs: $6,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	15d	1	0.50mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	23d	1	0.78mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	15d	1	0.87mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	15d	1	1.37mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,999 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,999 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,999 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,999 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $222,999 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,999 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $222,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $222,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $222,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,999 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,999 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $222,999 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $222,999 1407-char remark
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $217,999 Active 1407-char remark
19. 2006-01-23
    soldstatus $57,000
20. 2004-04-22
    soldstatus $3,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,277
• − Property taxes: −$3,288
• − Insurance: −$1,096
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − Depreciation: −$6,376
• Taxable loss: −$3,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $1,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7333.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $222,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $217,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $3,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $155 · -17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.