16989 Hazelnut Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$304,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $308k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Boasting a beautiful and functional single-story layout, the Brazos plan welcomes you with a charming front porch entrance. Inside, the home is anchored by an open-concept living area, with a spacious great room that flows into a versatile dining area and a well-appointed kitchen with a center island. Toward the front of the home, the foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms-two that flank a full bath and one with an attached full bath and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Front porch entrance
• Spacious great room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• FRONT PORCH ENTRANCE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• VERSATILE DINING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $304,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area of 2012

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (BRAZOS plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $249,658 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,836
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+2%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	89
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (+1%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	85
14308 Ash Tree Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-4%)	2mo	$269,900	$140	79
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+1%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	76
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+4%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	69
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,173 (+8%)	1mo	$306,990	$141	57
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-13%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	51
16807 Country Roots Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-11%)	2mo	$277,990	$155	50
17343 Western Hill Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,190 (+9%)	1mo	$299,999	$137	50
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-13%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	49
15557 Granger Green Way	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-13%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	46
17354 Western Hill Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,199
• Equity at exit: $45,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,589
• Equity at exit: $26,362

Cash invested: $85,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,574/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $285,395

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,225
• Closing costs: $9,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	1d	13	0.24mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	43d	1	1.10mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $304,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,900 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,079
• − Property taxes: −$4,574
• − Insurance: −$1,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − Depreciation: −$8,870
• Taxable loss: −$6,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,652
• After-tax cash flow: $34/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and functional layout. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and appeal of the bathrooms.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and appeal of the bathrooms. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B