8598 Bay Creek Rd · Luna Pier, MI 48133

$69,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · MultiFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1920 0.78 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

Key facts

• Accessory dwelling
• Full basement
• Massive lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• MASSIVE LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• ACCESSORY DWELLING
• FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.78 acres (115 x 297); Zoned agricultural

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; Two-story building; Cedar exterior
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Pets allowed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive. Per door: $830/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#227 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mason Consolidated Schools (Monroe) (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #155 of 540 in MI (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,763/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 34% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.65%
• DSCR: 7.79
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.53×
• Total profit: $147,301
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.00×
• Total profit: $332,683
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48133

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$790
• Net cashflow: $2,490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 29%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$3,762
Total (3 units)			$3,763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

3. 2026-04-30
   price $69,900 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

4. 2026-04-29
   price $69,900
5. 2026-04-21
   listed $75,000 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

6. 2026-04-21
   listed $75,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   WOW! This property is an incredible investment opportunity. Three units on a massive 3/4 acre lot. The main house features two units and a full basement. Behind the main house, there is a 2 bed 1 bath accessory dwelling with a 2 car attached garage. With a bit of tlc, this gem will be cash flowing nicely! Conveniently located near parks, schools, freeway access, and more, this home is a must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,612
• − Management: −$3,612
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $30,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,340
• After-tax cash flow: $22,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason Consolidated Schools (Monroe)
• NCES district ID: 2623100
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,798
• Composite: 37.72/100
• National rank: #4355
• State rank: #155 of 540 in MI

Livability — Luna Pier

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #5696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe · 31,363 people
• City population: 1,204
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 6,711
• Household income: $65,867
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.5

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.33%
• Current HPI: 152.4502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS