1407 Watermont Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$549,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,098 sqft · Land · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 6,503 sqft lot $177/sqft · 10% above area Est $498k · 10% over $124/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 11225445 - Built by Toll Brothers - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional.

Key facts

• 6,503 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($516k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,613 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,298
• List price: $549,000
• Delta: 10.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-109,018
• Equity at exit: $115,141

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-159,827
• Equity at exit: $106,649

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,431/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $-641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,347

Max offer price $435,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-330	-5% $-485	+0% $-641	+5% $-796	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-920	-5% $-780	+0% $-641	+5% $-501	+10% $-361
Rate	-1.0pp $-364	-0.5pp $-501	base $-641	+0.5pp $-783	+1.0pp $-928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $549,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $549,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $549,000 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional storage. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

15. 2026-05-05
    price $549,000 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional storage. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

16. 2026-04-07
    price $575,000 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional storage. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

17. 2026-04-07
    price $575,000 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional storage. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $590,000 Active 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    MLS# 11225445 - Built by Toll Brothers - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional.

19. 2026-03-28
    listed $590,000 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet. Central to a generous loft with tray ceiling, secondary bedrooms feature ample closets and shared hall bath with separate dual-sink vanity area. Additional highlights include a desirable first floor bedroom suite with walk-in closet and private bath, versatile office, convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and additional storage. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,047 · $837/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,616/yr (+$635/mo · 313.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$2,431
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,395
• − Management: −$3,395
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$17,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,258
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $549,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $549,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $575,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $575,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Listed $590,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $590,000 Zillow