Plan 2141 Modeled Plan · Port Orchard, WA 98367

$494,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,141 sqft · SingleFamily · 201 Days on market

↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Front porch
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $494,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $626,794.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#110 in WA, #2,167 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $366,962 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $626,794
• List price: $494,950
• Delta: -21.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6178 Telford Way SW Lot 412	0.02mi	3/2.5	2,141 (0%)	2mo	$548,235	$256	97
5991 Thornhill Ave SW	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,099 (-2%)	2mo	$599,990	$286	86
5980 Thornhill Ave SW	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,099 (-2%)	1mo	$599,990	$286	86
6010 SW Thornhill Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,099 (-2%)	2mo	$654,990	$312	85
6004 Trace Dr SW	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,281 (+6%)	1mo	$769,950	$338	83
4145 SW Bigler Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,098 (-2%)	2mo	$814,900	$388	82
6073 Trace Dr SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,957 (-9%)	3mo	$613,950	$314	78
5733 Trace Dr SW	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,258 (+6%)	1mo	$822,045	$364	75
5481 Thornhill Ave SW	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,098 (-2%)	3mo	$839,900	$400	71
4141 SW Muller Ln #315	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-9%)	2mo	$649,990	$333	71
6378 Troon Ave SW	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,971 (-8%)	1mo	$717,500	$364	70
6141 Crestner Dr SW #406	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,457 (+15%)	2mo	$600,000	$244	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-197,855
• Equity at exit: $93,457

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-309,896
• Equity at exit: $54,194

Cash invested: $175,502 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98367

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$783 /mo · $9,402/yr
• Insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $-1,433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,483

Max offer price $419,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-999	-5% $-1,216	+0% $-1,433	+5% $-1,649	+10% $-1,866
Rent	-10% $-1,723	-5% $-1,578	+0% $-1,433	+5% $-1,288	+10% $-1,143
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,117	-0.5pp $-1,273	base $-1,433	+0.5pp $-1,595	+1.0pp $-1,760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,698
• Closing costs: $18,804
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5924 Trace Dr SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	4.0	2949	$4,200	$1.42	15d	1	0.14mi
6982 Marymac Dr SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	2.0	2336	$3,600	$1.54	23d	1	0.84mi
4467 Hibiscus Cir SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	3.0	2700	$3,550	$1.31	45d	1	1.04mi
4357 Wandering Way Port Orchard, WA	4.0	3.0	2758	$3,495	$1.27	15d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $494,950 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,950 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,950 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,950 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,950 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $494,950 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,950 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $494,950 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,950 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $494,950 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $494,950 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $494,950 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $494,950 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $494,950 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,950 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,950 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $494,950 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-03-28
    price $494,950 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

19. 2026-02-12
    price $514,950 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

20. 2026-02-05
    price $509,950 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

21. 2026-01-15
    price $529,950 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

22. 2025-12-02
    listed $549,950 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Loft * Classic white painted millwork, doors and baseboards throughout * Quartz kitchen countertops with 6-in. quartz backsplash * Recessed-panel birch kitchen cabinets * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Spacious great room * Eat-in kitchen * Upstairs laundry room * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,110
• − Property taxes: −$9,402
• − Insurance: −$3,134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,523
• − Management: −$3,523
• − Depreciation: −$18,234
• Taxable loss: −$28,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Orchard

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2167

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orchard, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• City population: 68,721
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,756
• Household income: $115,482
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 595.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.02%
• Current HPI: 351.671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $494,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $514,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $509,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $529,950 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Listed $549,950 Zillow