Riverside Plan · Freeport, FL 32439

$374,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Riverside, a new home floor plan at Ashton Park Phase III in Freeport Florida. This home features a welcoming and elegant foyer that leads into a spacious open concept living area with 9' ceilings. The kitchen features quartz countertops, Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island, making it the centerpiece of the home. The single basin undermount sink and the dedicated water filter faucet add to the ease in the kitchen. The dining area and great room are flooded with natural light, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Natural light
• Oversized island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• SINGLE BASIN UNDERMOUNT SINK
• DEDICATED WATER FILTER FAUCET
• NATURAL LIGHT

🏗️ New construction. The $374,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $409,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1403 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,496 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,259
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Foxtrail Run	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,107 (0%)	0mo	$341,404	$162	96
69 Foxtrail Run	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,107 (0%)	1mo	$347,000	$165	94
16 Foxtrail Run	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	1mo	$382,106	$176	88
31 Foxtrail Run	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-12%)	3mo	$324,357	$175	65
57 Village Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,928 (-8%)	0mo	$518,000	$269	61
276 Bent Oak Dr Unit HS B10	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,142 (+2%)	1mo	$354,490	$165	57
18 Free Point Cir Unit Homesite B8	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	1mo	$339,990	$170	52
157 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A14	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,229 (+6%)	3mo	$346,490	$155	51
323 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A7	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	3mo	$335,000	$168	51
177 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A12	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	3mo	$342,345	$171	49
223 Partridge Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-8%)	1mo	$390,000	$202	47
187 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A11	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (-12%)	1mo	$334,985	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-99,486
• Equity at exit: $61,022

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-142,047
• Equity at exit: $35,385

Cash invested: $114,593 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,990 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1403
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,139/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,580

Max offer price $344,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-305	+0% $-446	+5% $-588	+10% $-729
Rent	-10% $-685	-5% $-566	+0% $-446	+5% $-327	+10% $-208
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-342	base $-446	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,315
• Closing costs: $12,278
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Bent Oak Dr Freeport, FL	5.0	3.0	2142	$4,500	$2.10	6d	1	0.65mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan homePlan model name: Riverside
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,107 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Riverside (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $374,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $374,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $374,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $374,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $374,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $374,900 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $374,900 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $374,900 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $374,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $374,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $374,900 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $374,900 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $374,900 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $374,900 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $374,900 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $374,900 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $374,900 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $374,900 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $374,900 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $374,900 Active 91 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $374,900 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $374,900 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $374,900 Active 88 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $374,900 Active 87 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $374,900 Active 86 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $374,900 Active 85 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    pricedays on market $374,900 Active 84 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $409,900 Active 83 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $409,900 Active 82 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $409,900 Active 81 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $409,900 Active 80 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $409,900 Active 79 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $409,900 Active 78 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $409,900 Active 77 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $409,900 Active 76 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $409,900 Active 75 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $409,900 Active 74 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $409,900 Active 72 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $409,900 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $409,900 Active 68 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $409,900 Active 67 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $409,900 Active 65 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $409,900 Active 63 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $409,900 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,139
• − Insurance: −$2,046
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,894
• − Management: −$2,894
• − Depreciation: −$11,906
• Taxable loss: −$12,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 29 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,535–$31,605 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a spacious kitchen, bathrooms, and hardwood floors throughout. The exterior is well-maintained, and the home is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mossy Head School B FL #525/2,144 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Freeport Senior High School C- FL #138/667 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan homePlan model name: Riverside
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,107 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Riverside (new construction plan)