625 S Esperanza St · Las Cruces, NM 88001

$100,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1952 6,500 sqft lot $125/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity. 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a large lot with great potential. Property requires updates and is being sold as-is. Seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,143 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,608
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -71.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,496
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,655
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88001

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $143	+0% $115	+5% $87	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $78	+0% $115	+5% $152	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $140	base $115	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 N Virginia St Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	876	$1,250	$1.43	44d	1	0.53mi
1400 S Espina St Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	720	$795	$1.10	44d	1	0.68mi
649 N Espina St Las Cruces, NM	1.0	1.0	571	$1,000	$1.75	44d	1	0.73mi
649 N Espina St Unit 2D Las Cruces, NM	1.0	1.0	571	$1,000	$1.75	22d	1	0.73mi
310 N Alameda Blvd Unit 110 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	885	$1,350	$1.53	44d	1	0.77mi
290 Montana Ave Apt 103 Las Cruces, NM	1.0	1.0	655	$1,090	$1.66	44d	1	0.87mi
290 Montana Ave Unit 402 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,425	$1.38	44d	1	0.87mi
290 Montana Ave Las Cruces, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,090	$1.31	14d	2	0.87mi
518 E Boutz Rd Unit B Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	864	$850	$0.98	44d	1	0.88mi
1121 N Mesquite St Las Cruces, NM	1.0	1.0	735	$635	$0.86	22d	1	0.97mi
1800 S Espina St Apt 1 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	663	$750	$1.13	44d	1	1.02mi
905 Branson Ave Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	22d	1	1.02mi
905 Branson Ave Unit B Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	1.03mi
917 Branson Ave Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	1.03mi
1740 S Solano Dr Las Cruces, NM	1.0	1.0	650	$750	$1.15	14d	1	1.05mi
1020 S Triviz Dr Apt 101 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$895	$0.90	45d	1	1.40mi
2190 Bex St Unit 4 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	800	$825	$1.03	44d	1	1.40mi
1914 Sheryl Way Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	856	$1,400	$1.64	14d	1	1.41mi
251 Desert Rose Ct Unit B3 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	865	$895	$1.03	44d	1	1.43mi
2306 S Espina St Las Cruces, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$795	$1.07	14d	7	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Investor opportunity. 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a large lot with great potential. Property requires updates and is being sold as-is. Seller will make no repairs.

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $100,000 Active 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Investor opportunity. 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a large lot with great potential. Property requires updates and is being sold as-is. Seller will make no repairs.

3. 2026-02-20
   price $110,000
4. 2025-10-08
   price $125,000
5. 2009-03-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$894
• − Management: −$894
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$67
• After-tax cash flow: $1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 37,690
• Household income: $33,087
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2590.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 24% White 21% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.44%
• Current HPI: 219.0404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-15 Listed $100,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $110,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $125,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2009-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.