10430 Red Cardinal Drive Dr · Cleveland, TX 77328

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 5,500 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Atticus floor plan by LGI Homes at Pinewood Trails — where style meets affordability! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,076 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a 2-car garage. Entertain with ease in the open-concept layout featuring a chef-ready kitchen, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Relax in your luxury master retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and private bath designed for comfort and tranquility. Enjoy upgrades like smart-home features, luxury flooring, and front yard landscaping! Pinewood Trails offers fantastic amenities: a playground, picnic areas, splash pad, walking trails, and more. Live the lifestyle you&

Key facts

• Atticus floor plan
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ATTICUS FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY MASTER RETREAT
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Association: SBB Management; Annual association fee of $420; Community amenities include playground and trails; Community has curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by LGI Homes; New construction completed 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor) — 5 x 8; Bathroom (first floor) — 5 x 8
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor) — 6 x 6

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $238,511.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 32 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12431% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $173,879 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,511
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -12.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,624
• Equity at exit: $35,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,789
• Equity at exit: $20,622

Cash invested: $66,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,856

Max offer price $222,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-25	+0% $-92	+5% $-160	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-161	+0% $-92	+5% $-24	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-32	base $-92	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,628
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25365 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	45d	1	0.08mi
10446 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,625	$1.15	0d	1	0.12mi
10387 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,830	$1.70	45d	1	0.12mi
25382 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	0d	1	0.13mi
10519 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,625	$1.15	6d	1	0.13mi
10462 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.15mi
25397 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	0d	1	0.16mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.18mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.25mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$1,875	$0.96	0d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $1,640
17. 2026-05-11
    price $209,900 762-char remark
18. 2026-05-02
    listed $1,840
19. 2026-04-30
    historical $1,840
20. 2026-04-18
    price $1,840
21. 2026-04-17
    listed $229,900 Active 762-char remark
22. 2026-04-15
    historical
23. 2026-03-14
    listed $1,830
24. 2026-03-05
    listed $229,900 Active
25. 2026-02-27
    historical $1,830
26. 2026-02-27
    historical
27. 2026-01-23
    listed $1,830
28. 2026-01-22
    listed $228,900 Active
29. 2026-01-08
    historical $1,830
30. 2026-01-07
    historical
31. 2025-12-16
    listed $1,830
32. 2025-12-12
    listed $228,900 Active
33. 2025-12-10
    historical
34. 2025-11-30
    historical $1,830
35. 2025-11-08
    listed $1,830
36. 2025-11-07
    listed $228,900 Active
37. 2025-11-06
    historical $1,830
38. 2025-10-30
    price $1,830
39. 2025-10-29
    historical
40. 2025-10-15
    listed $1,910
41. 2025-10-03
    price $228,900
42. 2025-09-26
    listed $234,900 Active
43. 2025-09-25
    historical $1,910
44. 2025-09-24
    historical
45. 2025-08-15
    listed $1,910
46. 2025-08-14
    listed $234,900 Active
47. 2025-08-13
    historical
48. 2025-08-01
    historical $1,925
49. 2025-07-17
    listed $234,900 Active
50. 2025-07-16
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,870/yr (+$239/mo · 295.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$1,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,939
• Taxable loss: −$5,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

77 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,675 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Rental Removed $1,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $1,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Rental Removed $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed for Rent $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed for Rent $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed for Rent $1,930 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed for Rent $1,980 HARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $225,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $225,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $223,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $225,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.