11 Thoreau Ct · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1941 9,452 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 11 Thoreau Ct! This charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch offers comfortable one floor living on a spacious lot in the Town of Tonawanda. Step inside to find a large living room, an updated full bath, and an eat in kitchen with ample cabinet space. The home features a versatile bonus room that can serve as a home office, hobby room, or additional living space. Enjoy the convenience of two separate driveways, providing plenty of off-street parking for vehicles, recreational equipment, or guests. Outside, you'll find a large backyard with a deck, mature trees, and plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Vinyl siding, updated finishes, and a functional layout make this h

Key facts

• Updated full bath
• Eat in kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• ONE FLOOR LIVING
• UPDATED FULL BATH
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• TWO SEPARATE DRIVEWAYS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Partial fence; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions 98 x 95

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holmes Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 281 students, 78% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 33% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.54%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,772
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Mapleview Dr	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,355 (-2%)	1mo	$227,000	$168	70
42 Parkedge Ct	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,362 (-1%)	7mo	$243,000	$178	67
278 Ensminger Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (-2%)	15mo	$235,000	$174	63
306 Dupont Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-1%)	19mo	$233,000	$170	56
250 Dupont Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,508 (+9%)	7mo	$220,000	$146	46
184 Dunlop Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,354 (-2%)	22mo	$205,000	$151	43
56 Ermann Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-6%)	18mo	$210,000	$162	42
49 Elmview Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-12%)	22mo	$230,000	$190	41
308 Lowell Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,249 (-9%)	6mo	$243,000	$195	41
253 Rosemont Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,396 (+1%)	21mo	$321,000	$230	39
210 Dupont Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,228 (-11%)	17mo	$120,000	$98	33
25 Ermann Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-11%)	19mo	$242,500	$198	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,545
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $128,895
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,267/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $763	+0% $735	+5% $707	+10% $679
Rent	-10% $578	-5% $656	+0% $735	+5% $814	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $785	-0.5pp $760	base $735	+0.5pp $709	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	0.29mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	18d	1	0.68mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	0.96mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	1.30mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	1.40mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	3d	1	1.46mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,267 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,267 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$3,267
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $6,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,267 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.