781 E Baffin Dr · South Venice, FL 34293

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1985 8,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom with attached Garage located in South Venice. New Roof in 2025, New Water Heater, Washer, Dryer, Granite Kitchen and Guest Bathroom Counters. South Venice offers a membership for use of a fairy to private Gulf Beach. 4 miles from The Public Beach, Pier, and the best dog beach in SW Florida.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• New water heater
• Private gulf beach

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE GULF BEACH
• 4 MILES FROM THE PUBLIC BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($55/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $249k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,461 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,772
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,091
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1255
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $75	+0% $5	+5% $-66	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-77	+0% $5	+5% $87	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $68	base $5	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $249,000 Under Contract 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-02-12
   listed $249,000 Active 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Move in Ready 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom with attached Garage located in South Venice. New Roof in 2025, New Water Heater, Washer, Dryer, Granite Kitchen and Guest Bathroom Counters. South Venice offers a membership for use of a fairy to private Gulf Beach. 4 miles from The Public Beach, Pier, and the best dog beach in SW Florida.

7. 2012-02-14
   soldstatus $69,500
8. 2012-02-10
   soldstatus $69,500 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Short Sale-Cash or FHA-203K financing. Discover this terrific opportunity to own your diamond in the rough by way of sunny Venice FL, just a breath away from beautiful beaches and the vibrant shopping and dining of downtown. This property is in need of repair, it has an issue with the siding and the drain field will require attention with that it also has terrific qualities such as 2BR, 2BA with laminate floors flowing throughout the main living area, a dining area off the kitchen, carpeted bedrooms, ceiling fans in all rooms, and a lighted built-in in the living room. The screened, paver-bricked lanai and deck area offer an excellent space for entertaining or quiet relaxation. Our short sales are professionally mitigatedwith an attorney. Short Sale; approval of the owner(s) of record lenders(s) may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced, any reduction of the gross compensation will be apportioned 50/50 between listing and cooperating brokers.

9. 2011-05-24
   listed $66,500 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Short Sale-Cash or FHA-203K financing. Discover this terrific opportunity to own your diamond in the rough by way of sunny Venice FL, just a breath away from beautiful beaches and the vibrant shopping and dining of downtown. This property is in need of repair, it has an issue with the siding and the drain field will require attention with that it also has terrific qualities such as 2BR, 2BA with laminate floors flowing throughout the main living area, a dining area off the kitchen, carpeted bedrooms, ceiling fans in all rooms, and a lighted built-in in the living room. The screened, paver-bricked lanai and deck area offer an excellent space for entertaining or quiet relaxation. Our short sales are professionally mitigatedwith an attorney. Short Sale; approval of the owner(s) of record lenders(s) may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced, any reduction of the gross compensation will be apportioned 50/50 between listing and cooperating brokers.

10. 2006-07-20
    soldstatus $195,000
11. 2006-06-16
    soldstatus $195,000
12. 2006-03-08
    listed $199,900
13. 2003-07-23
    soldstatus $119,000
14. 1999-03-16
    soldstatus $73,500
15. 1998-04-02
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Venice

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 111,690
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+266.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $249,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2012-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2012-02-10 Sold (MLS) $69,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-24 Listed $66,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-16 Sold (MLS) $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-08 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 1998-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,698 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.