9 Davis Bayou Rd · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $198k · 9% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in East OS close to shopping and schools. Great for primary home or investment property. Minutes from downtown OS for dining and entertainment. This property offers privacy, large mature shade trees on 9/10 acre within city limits. Plenty of room for R/V and Boat parking. 650 sq. ft shop with 220/110v power. Backyard completely fenced for pets.

Key facts

• R/v and boat parking
• 650 sq ft shop
• Built 1960

Tags

• LARGE MATURE SHADE TREES
• R/V AND BOAT PARKING
• 650 SQ FT SHOP
• BACKYARD COMPLETELY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,770 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4604 Riley Rd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,473 (+11%)	1mo	$182,500	$124	64
1317 Chalmette Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	9mo	$180,000	$138	59
105 Gettysburg Cir	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,330 (+1%)	13mo	$167,500	$126	57
103 Grand Teton Dr	0.52mi	4/1.2 (+1)	1,235 (-7%)	0mo	$199,900	$162	56
19 Davis Bayou Cir	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,473 (+11%)	8mo	$255,000	$173	54
100 Grand Teton Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+4%)	18mo	$172,500	$125	50
4213 Yosemite Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,247 (-6%)	8mo	$175,000	$140	49
4658 Kelly Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+14%)	8mo	$239,500	$159	46
1302 Chalmette Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+12%)	10mo	$175,000	$118	46
120 Yellowstone Cir	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-9%)	8mo	$199,800	$167	44
4110 Groveland Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,141 (-14%)	9mo	$189,500	$166	43
4106 Groveland Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-15%)	18mo	$168,975	$150	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-23,000
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,665
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,077/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $192	+0% $141	+5% $90	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $75	+0% $141	+5% $208	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $187	base $141	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4730 Gibson Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,205	$1.19	21d	1	0.64mi
132 Gettysburg Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	21d	1	0.67mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,337	$1.26	44d	1	0.77mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,296	$1.22	21d	1	0.77mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,405	$1.32	14d	1	0.77mi
8701 Old Spanish Trl Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	14d	3	0.83mi
8701 Old Spanish Trl Unit 107 Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	0.83mi
3910 Yosemite Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,595	$1.49	44d	1	0.92mi
3825 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	21d	1	1.06mi
3305 N 8th St Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,250	$1.25	21d	1	1.26mi
3500 Groveland Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$1,750	$1.49	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2026-02-02
    historical
17. 2026-01-01
    status Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-22
    price $195,000
20. 2025-11-24
    price $205,000
21. 2025-09-28
    price $210,000
22. 2025-09-12
    price $220,000
23. 2025-08-27
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,077 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,077 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,077
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $2,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $185,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $195,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $205,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $210,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $220,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-27 Listed $230,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,077 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.