125 Burning Tree Ct · Jones Mills, AR 71913

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1992 0.52 ac lot Est $308k · 29% under $113/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained custom home located on two golf course lots with panoramic views of the 10th, 11th, 12th , and 13 fairways and Mountains. This thoughtfully designed property offers a comfortable layout and timeless craftsmanship, reflecting pride of ownership throughout. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, two baths, and an inviting open-concept living area perfect for entertaining or relaxing while enjoying the golf-course backdrop. Downstairs, a large flex space provides endless possibilities — ideal for a game room, den, or additional bedroom screened in breeze way from garage to home. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and sunset views from the deck overlooking the fairways. This well-loved custom home combines warmth, functionality, and location — a rare find in Diamondhead’s golf community.

Key facts

• Large flex space
• Panoramic views
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• LARGE FLEX SPACE
• SCREENED IN BREEZE WAY
• DECK OVERLOOKING FAIRWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate acreage: 0.52; Square footage source: courthouse
• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, and rural development
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $113; Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, playground, party room, picnic area, and manager's office; Located on/near a golf course

Exterior

• Parking: Garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Brick and frame exterior; Full basement
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Level lot; Cul-de-sac; Golf course frontage; Located in subdivision; Mountain view; Golf view; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Dryer connection (electric); Walk-in shower; Sheet rock walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($585/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,576 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,840
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Arlington Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,432 (+1%)	1mo	$269,900	$111	86
102 Casper Ct	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,386 (-1%)	18mo	$355,000	$149	73
128 Trevino Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,422 (+1%)	21mo	$380,000	$157	71
127 Firestone Dr	0.20mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,166 (-10%)	4mo	$275,000	$127	62
206 Independence Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,200 (-8%)	11mo	$280,000	$127	56
208 Independence Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,154 (-10%)	11mo	$275,000	$128	56
134 Firestone Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-13%)	16mo	$329,500	$157	52
137 Arlington Dr	0.14mi	3/3.0	2,149 (-11%)	24mo	$259,000	$121	50
154 Diamondhead Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,046 (-15%)	18mo	$340,000	$166	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,876
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $10,847
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $897/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,814

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Ohio Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	3.5	2869	$3,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $220,000 New Listing
17. 2026-04-12
    historical
18. 2026-04-11
    listed $220,000 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Beautifully maintained custom home located on two golf course lots with panoramic views of the 10th, 11th, 12th , and 13 fairways and Mountains. This thoughtfully designed property offers a comfortable layout and timeless craftsmanship, reflecting pride of ownership throughout. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, two baths, and an inviting open-concept living area perfect for entertaining or relaxing while enjoying the golf-course backdrop. Downstairs, a large flex space provides endless possibilities — ideal for a game room, den, or additional bedroom screened in breeze way from garage to home. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and sunset views from the deck overlooking the fairways. This well-loved custom home combines warmth, functionality, and location — a rare find in Diamondhead’s golf community.

19. 2026-04-11
    listed $220,000

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Beautifully maintained custom home located on two golf course lots with panoramic views of the 10th, 11th, 12th , and 13 fairways and Mountains. This thoughtfully designed property offers a comfortable layout and timeless craftsmanship, reflecting pride of ownership throughout. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, two baths, and an inviting open-concept living area perfect for entertaining or relaxing while enjoying the golf-course backdrop. Downstairs, a large flex space provides endless possibilities — ideal for a game room, den, or additional bedroom screened in breeze way from garage to home. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and sunset views from the deck overlooking the fairways. This well-loved custom home combines warmth, functionality, and location — a rare find in Diamondhead’s golf community.

20. 2006-04-13
    soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$897
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$761
• After-tax cash flow: $1,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jones Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+41.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $220,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $220,000 HSBOR
• 2026-04-11 Listed $220,000 CARMLS
• 2006-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $897 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.