17327 Bay Leaf Rd · Cobb, CA 95461

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 913 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1948 0.32 ac lot $192/sqft · 16% below area Est $208k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic Cabin Retreat in the Heart of Cobb Mountain! Step into timeless charm with this vintage two bedroom, one bath cabin offering 913 square feet of warm, inviting living space, where knotty pine paneling, original hardwood floors, and a floor-to-ceiling picture window bring the beauty of the surrounding forest right inside. Tucked at the end of the road with no through traffic, this private setting sits on nearly a third of an acre, level with the road and gently sloping down to a seasonal stream, creating a peaceful, tucked-away feel. The cozy wood-burning stove and abundance of windows add both comfort and natural light, while the downstairs finished room and additional storage offer flexible potential for expanded living space or a possible third bedroom. Located in a friendly, low-key neighborhood just minutes from community swimming pools, two golf courses, and Boggs Demonstration Forest for hiking, mountain biking, and camping, this property captures that classic summer getaway vibe while still being within a convenient two-hour drive from the Bay Area and close to an award-winning elementary school. Whether you're looking for a vacation retreat, rental opportunity, or a place to unwind, this is easy mountain living with room to grow.

Key facts

• Knotty pine paneling
• Seasonal stream
• Private setting

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE PANELING
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE SETTING
• SEASONAL STREAM
• COZY WOOD BURNING STOVE
• DOWNSTAIRS FINISHED ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,501
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -15.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17040 Edgewood Way	0.29mi	2/1.0	872 (-4%)	2mo	$179,000	$205	77
10332 Pinewood Way	0.34mi	2/1.0	840 (-8%)	21mo	$95,000	$113	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,099
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $39,015
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,893/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $511	+0% $462	+5% $412	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $377	+0% $462	+5% $546	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $506	base $462	+0.5pp $416	+1.0pp $370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $195,000 Active 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    Classic Cabin Retreat in the Heart of Cobb Mountain! Step into timeless charm with this vintage two bedroom, one bath cabin offering 913 square feet of warm, inviting living space, where knotty pine paneling, original hardwood floors, and a floor-to-ceiling picture window bring the beauty of the surrounding forest right inside. Tucked at the end of the road with no through traffic, this private setting sits on nearly a third of an acre, level with the road and gently sloping down to a seasonal stream, creating a peaceful, tucked-away feel. The cozy wood-burning stove and abundance of windows add both comfort and natural light, while the downstairs finished room and additional storage offer flexible potential for expanded living space or a possible third bedroom. Located in a friendly, low-key neighborhood just minutes from community swimming pools, two golf courses, and Boggs Demonstration Forest for hiking, mountain biking, and camping, this property captures that classic summer getaway vibe while still being within a convenient two-hour drive from the Bay Area and close to an award-winning elementary school. Whether you're looking for a vacation retreat, rental opportunity, or a place to unwind, this is easy mountain living with room to grow.

19. 2005-10-28
    soldstatus $173,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,893
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $4,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+12.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2005-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,893 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.